2009 World Series Preview: NY Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
By Matthew Storey
Finally!
After an interminable five seasons with no World Series for the Yankees, the Bronx Bombers put together a terrific 103-59 regular season, spotting the rival Red Sox and defending AL champion Rays some ground early but blowing by mid-season and finishing with a flourish. They took out the red-hot Twins in 3 well contested ALDS games and overcame some shoddy play to defeat long-time nemesis, the LA Angels, in 6 for the ALCS and the 40th Pennant in 90 Seasons (an ASTOUNDING 44%).
So, with 110-61 in the books, it is time for the new Yankee Stadium to do what the first two did (Stadium opened in 1923, Yankees won World Series, re-opened after 2 season renovation in 1976 and Yankees went to World Series for first time in 12 years, got swept but came back to win the next two) and host a World Series in its first year.
For their part, the defending World Champion Phillies ruined the dream matchup of Yankees/Dodgers, with all the built in magic of Joe Torre, Manny Ramirez and Don Mattingly returning to NYC, but they did so honestly, by thrashing the Dodgers convincingly for the 2nd straight year. LIke the Yankees, there can be no doubt these Phils earned their slot.
Competitively, the Phillies are lacking in NYC story lines (Pedro being the one interesting player from an AL standpoint) and are a genuine NL Power - they play that chippy, competitive style that will remind Yankees of Red Sox - they chatter (already Jimmy Rollins has called for Phils in 5) and all of that hoped for mutual respect we'd have seen from Torre/Girardi is lost. Charley Manuel is a comical figure, a cocky hick who makes for a tough root in these parts, but he's done one hell of a job in a place where men like Terry Francona and local legend Larry Bowa could not break through, Reliever Brett Myers is a redneck jackass who punched his wife on a Boston street but has a big arm when healthy and throttled the Yankees in May, Shane Victorino is like Nick Swisher, an attention seeking showman, but his energetic style makes things happen for the Broad Streeters...and all-time creep, '80 Manager Dallas Green actually was a Yankee manager for a year or so, probably the lowest moment in Franchise history...its a team who aren't much like the Yankees, don't have much history with the Yankees and want to grab the spotlight and the aura of winning from the Yankees. If the Phillies get under Yankee skin and draw them into confrontation, that will be to their advantage. For the Yankees, the key is to treat the Phillies as if they are anonymous, punch the clock, do your thing, ignore the opponent - that's the Yankee way and was instrumental in helping them finally overcome the Angels.
If its a fight, advantage - Phillies. If the games are played low-key, the low-key Yankees will thrive.
And there it is...the best team in the AL and the best team in the NL, what a World Series is supposed to be.
Similar construction, opposite personalities - should make for a classic!
Lets take a look at the individual matchups;
1B
Ryan Howard, Phillies LH
The engaging and majestic presence that is Ryan Howard is heading to First Ballot Hall of Fame status (as is the man who plays next to him and maybe the entire Infield on the other side), his frightening power to all fields and newfound agility on the basepaths and in the field make him a better player than the Howard who already has an MVP and a World Series rings and leads all MLB in HR/RBI since 2005. However, Howard is a dreadful hitter against quality LH pitching (.207 overall) and the Yankees will throw Southpaw starters in 4 or 5 of the potential 7 game series, one of them might be the best LH in MLB and the other one has more Postseason wins than any MLB pitcher in history, LH OR RH. He will have to stay patient and wait for a mistake and hope that the ones he catches up with will find J-Roll, Victorino and Utley on base. For all this thump and expanded fitness, Howard is an all-or-nothing sort who will strike out - look for Yankees to alternate Coke and Marte in late inning situations trying to find an advantage against him as they do with Papi in Boston.
Mark Teixeira, Yankees, SH
Teixeira is a rare commodity, a 1B whose glove is so dynamic it changes game outcomes, he saves errors, throws out runners from anywhere and is always in the right place (witness that Melky to Jeter to Teixeira relay that caught Bobby Abreu off of 2B in the ALCS). That Defensive brilliance has been in full evidence this postseason, but, at least for the first 7 games - his powerful, switch hitting Bat was absolutely NOWHERE to be found, the way it was back in April. He did get a huge 3 Run 2B late in Game Five and then was effective in Game six as well, so may be coming back to form - he needs to if the Yankees have a chance with the Phillies. For Mark, like several Yankees, he can become too HR conscious and too dependent upon catching up to a Fastball. Both the Twins and the Angels feature starters who are not flamethrowers, but who can throw strikes with off-speed and breaking stuff. Teixeira and Swisher both saw an endless series of 70 MPH slow curveballs and 80 MPH change-ups and the Philly staff is built upon similar lines - Mark needs to cut back on the power stroke and give himself a chance to stroke singles off of the junk he will be CERTAIN to see in a heavy dose from Lee, Pedro, Hamels and Blanton.
2B
Robinson Cano, Yankees, LH
Cano is a terrible cold weather player and was shut down effectively for the two freezing ALCS games in The Bronx, making two horrible errors on easy chances, but otherwise played his typically jaw-dropping Defense throughout this postseason. He has incredible range to either side, and a gun for an arm as well as the best damn pivot in MLB on Double Play balls - something that accounts greatly for Andy Pettite's resurgence. Offensively, Cano too was undone by the junk ball and the swinging for the fences mindset early on, but he is a more flexible hitter than either Swisher or Teixeira and was back to spraying effectively all over the field by the tail end of the ALCS. Cano is capable of carrying this Yankee team if he gets hot, and should be effective against all Philly starters since he is equally adept with LH or RH, heat or junk. The key for Robby is to swing at STRIKES, not expand the zone chasing and let them walk him - as they are likely to prefer pitching to Swisher and Melky hitting behind him.
Chase Utley, Phillies, LH
Utley is the only MLB 2B who probably has even more ability than Cano, but the 2009 version of Utley is a great player who is nursing some injury problems. He made two uncharacteristic errors on Double Play attempts that were costly to the Phillies and would have been devastating in a more tightly contested series, the Yankees proved against both Minnesota and the Angels, teams that might be the two best fundamentally in MLB, that if you give them extra outs - they will beat you. Utley is an all-time Great and is capable of dominating, he just doesn't appear to be moving well or driving the ball with as much authority as usual. He is still a .300 hitter with huge thump against either LH or RH pitching and requires rapt focus on every plate appearance by Yankee pitchers.
SS
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, SH
J-Roll is the Phillies leader, his charisma, all around game, energy and smarts light up the ballpark and his trash-talking Bay Area chatter is never delivered with ugly undertones - he's not a guy to hate, or even to dislike, he wants to beat you, says so and plays hard as nails. Pure respect from the Magic Carpet. But he is not Derek Jeter, who hit a full 85 points higher, stole one fewer base in four fewer attempts and hit 3 fewer HR's, 3 that he's hit so far in the postseason, for all of his switch-hitting, dynamism and presence, Rollins hit .250 with a pathetic .296 ON-Base percentage in 2009 and the Yankees will challenge him to beat them. He can run into a pitch, as he did to open up the interleague series back in May against AJ Burnett and give the Phillies the dramatic extra-base hit as he did to defeat the Dodgers in the NLCS, but at-bat to at-bat, he is not a consistent threat this season.
Derek Jeter, Yankees, RH
Jeter is displaying his all-world ability in this postseason, maybe even more so than in previous years, which is saying a bit for a guy with 4 rings, 3 Gold Gloves, 7 seasons above .320 (11 times .300+), the alltime SS in hits, alltime Yankee in hits, alltime MLB postseason player in hits, 3rd alltime in postseason HR's, 1st in runs...he has made three game altering defensive plays thus far with sheer mental awareness, hits for big power or slap hitting situation with equal dexterity, has the big arm and makes all the plays and stole 30 bases for the 4th time (in 35 attempts) at 35. Jeter has cut back on his strikeouts since moving into the leadoff role and had an on-base percentage over .400 for the 4th time in his career, .112 points better than Rollins, which means something as leadoff men in front of the power. Rollins will engage the fans and the Yankees, psyche himself up. Jeter will remain above the fray, chilly, and waiting for the one thing that can beat the Phillies.
3B
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, RH
Those of us who watch every inning of every Yankee game, year after year, know that Jeter and Alex carried the Yankees when those around them were being schooled by soft tossing pitching or tightening up in pressure playoff atmosphere. Its rare when two players are so locked in at the plate, on the field, on the bases at the same time and that those two would both be First Ballot Hall of Famers playing side by side only adds to the majesty. Alex was at his very best in the first two rounds and his best is in the short conversation for the best that's been seen on a Baseball field. His bat speed is at the best its been since his freakish MVP year of 2007 and he is running the bases like Alex for the first time all season after the Hip Surgery turned him into more of a stationary type from May through August. Enormous power all over the field, base running, smarts, big glove, bigger arm. The Phillies cannot afford to let Alex beat them and figure to stay away and let him take walks or try and make him chase out of the zone.
Pedro Feliz, Phililes, RH
One of the great fielding 3B in all of Baseball, Felix is the weak link amongst both lineups in terms of Offense, but he still managed to drive in 82 runs and does make contact, which is important on a Philly team that has huge power but several guys who strike out an inordinate amount of the time (Ibanez, Werth, Howard). In a series where both teams are going to live over the wall, it is the team that hits them with men ON BASE that will prevail and the Yankee On-Base percentage dwarfs that of the Phillies and they proved in rounds one and two that they can beat small-ball teams at their small-ball game.
LF
Raul Ibanez, Phillies, LH
Of all the much ballyhooed HR power witnessed in the New Yankee Stadium in its inaugural year, none was more prodigiously struck than the 477 foot BOMB Ibanez hit off a hurt shoulder Chien-Ming Wang in May. Ibanez is one of those MLB players who has gotten better and better as he has gone (Werth is as well) and until being hurt this season, he was right there for NL MVP, but groin and abdominal injuries have greatly reduced his game (.232 with 12 HRs in 2nd Half). Yankees need to right after Rollins, Utley and Ibanez and tread carefully with Howard and Werth, this will result in some long fly HR's from those capable bats, but should keep them off the bases for the most part of the series. Ibanez injuries likely will have him at DH for tonight and tomorrow, with Francisco in LF.
Johnny Damon, Yankees, LH
Like Ibanez, Damon is two different players, when his calves are hurting and his vision is bothering him, he can be easily handled, especially by LH starters, but when his body is cooperating he can devastate teams as he did the Angels in the ALCS with huge HR power and critical RBI hits. He also has played an inspired LF, chasing down balls, diving for critical grabs and making smart throws in the playoffs. He is a marginal fielder overall, but a hustler whose legs are still good enough for 12 of 12 stolen bases in 2009 and is hot right now, if he stays hot, tough to see NY losing this series.
CF
Melky Cabrera, Yankees, SH
Melky looked a little tight in the ALDS, striking out on the same sorts of junkballs that have bedeviled Swisher and Teixeira, but came roaring back with a big ALCS (9 for 23, 4 HUGE RBI). He plays a terrific CF and his big arm catches baserunners, even Bobby Abreu, who played next to him for two years and should have known better. The Phillies will test him and he will throw them out, look for such a play in game one or two and say 'Guru told me so!'. the same Guru who told you this switch-hitting 25 year old would have a big year and was still improving, he is confident now and should have a good series at the back of the Yankee lineup.
Shane Victorino, Phillies, SH
Victorino is as extroverted and self-promoting as Melky is relaxed and team focused, a quirk of personality that leads many to consider him a far better player. The numbers tell a different story, as their power numbers are similar (Melky hit 3 more HR, drove in 6 more runs in 135 fewer at-bats). Both are switch hitters with some thump who can go get it in CF, but Victorino lacks Melky's big arm and Yankees will go 1st to 3rd on him. Victorino is an agile and successful basestealer who will put pressure on Yankee catchers if he is on base. He is also a proven Postseason winner. Still the numbers say he and Melky are similar, Melky hits 9th and Shane 2nd.
RF
Jayson Werth, Phillies, RH
For Guru's money, this is the player the Yankees have to work around to have success in this series. Yankee LH starters will limit some of the damage from Howard and both Utley and Ibanez have physical problems, Rollins will get his if he is feeling it, but Werth is the RH bat with serious thump who could make the Yankees pay for working cautiously to Howard, he singlehandedly destroyed the Dodgers and his game has come so far in such a short time it can be easy to look at him through a previous season's eye - this aint that guy. Werth is a classic mistake hitter with awesome power all over the yard and must be pitched carefully or walked to avoid crooked number-itis. He also showed a big arm in the series back in May. If Werth is in the running for MVP, this is going to be a Philly repeat.
Nick Swisher, Yankees, SH
Nicky, Nicky, Nicky...its a good thing he is such a genuinely nice guy. Like Teixeira, Swish is a power hitter from both sides who works the count and gets on base. Also like Tex, Swisher can be fastball happy and lacks the fluidity in his swing to adapt during at-bats, he takes a stiff arm hack like an axe wielding chopper and if he guesses right on pitch/location, he can send a ball into the stratosphere or tweak it neatly down the opposite line. But he is purely a guess hitter who is likely to be exposed continually by smarties like Lee, Pedro and Hamels. He is an agressive and enthusiastic RF with an average arm.
C
Jorge Posada, Yankees, SH
Jorge was clutch, big power from both sides, great defense in the ALDS and ALCS. He controlled the Angel running game and came through with the bat time and time again. He's caught 23 World Series games, more than 100 postseason games (by FAR, the most in MLB history) and is a sleeper in this series. Amongst veteran Yankees, Jorge is a fighter and an emotional leader on a business like squad, he is most likely to get into with old nemesis Pedro and some of the chattier Phillies.
Carlos Ruiz, Phillies, RH
Many analysts are calling this matchup 'even', I am not sure what they are talking about. Ruiz is a nice player who has made himself a much better hitter, but his career HR total of 22 is one more than Jorge hit in 383 at-bats during 2009. He makes great contact (more walks than strikeouts) and can thump (he hit a huge 3 Run HR to beat Yankees back in May). A nice player matched with a legendary one.
DH
Ben Francisco RH and Matt Stairs LH, Phillies
Francisco is a 5 tool sort with big potential who the generous Indians sent along to the Phillies, believing the gift of a reigning Cy Young winner was not enough! He has limited playing time in his MLB career but has shown flashes of big power and a big arm in the OF (he will play LF for Ibanez in AL park). Yankee pitchers have to avoid relaxing deep in the Philly lineup or they will get lit up by Francisco, Ruiz and Feliz. Stairs is the veteran LH thumper, very similar to Yankee reserve, Eric Hinske, he takes tough at-bats and buries mistakes from RH pitchers in the seats.
Hideki Matsui, Yankees, LH
The great Matsui has surged and been dominant this season when his surgically repaired knees have been drained and feeling strong and the two days off will do him a great deal of good (his best game of both earlier rounds came off a break between them). Yankees will probably benefit from the rest he'll get in Philly without a DH as the Interleague break helped him to a huge year (28HR/90 RBI) in 2009. Unflappable, experienced and huge power, Matsui will lay in the weeds and strike if ignored following Tex and Alex.
Rotation
CC Sabathia LH, AJ Burnett RH, Andy Pettitte LH, Chad Gaudin RH/Yankees
Yankee starters have been dominant thus far. CC has shut down the Twins once and the Angels twice with a minimum of threat and benefits from extra rest and a LH heavy Philly lineup, as well as the desire to make up for a terrible NLDS start in 2008 when he was asked to pitch on 3 day fumes for the umpteenth time in a row, his '09 performance is as good as it gets and shows the difference of not overusing a horse. He has ample rest to pitch three times, but Yankees are likely to throw Gaudin in game 4 unless trailing and desperate. Gaudin is a reliable 4-5 inning type who get strikeouts and need to avoid walks ,but might be a HR magnet against Phillies in their yard for game 4. AJ Burnett is a maddening enigma, who choked horribly in his ALCS start against the Angels, surrendering 4 runs before a single out and then putting two runs on base after his team had stormed back to take a 6-4 lead late. In between however, his dominant fastball and sharp breaking curve shut the Angels down cold - which his ability can do in any start. The season long sample says he will be great once and mediocre once if he gets two starts. Andy Pettitte has been lights-out, winning his all-time record 16th Postseason game, closing out his all-time record 5th series. He has been better than anyone could have imagined and guaranteed himself a job for as long as he wants one in MLB.
Cliff Lee LH, Pedro Martinez RH, Cole Hamels LH, Joe Blanton RH or JA Happ LH/Phillies
In one sense, the Phillie lack of power pitching is a concern - they are not strikeout types and may allow some baserunners here and there, but the Yankees are a fast ball centric sort of Offense who punish the sort of hard throwers who come right after them. Cliff Lee, Pedro and Cole Hamels all have the ability to throw changeups and breaking pitches for strikes in any count and keep Yankee sluggers swinging at air - meaning they WILL be strikeout pitchers! (did you follow all that?). Yankees will pummel Blanton and Phillies will pummel Gaudin, making game 4 the right one to bet the 'Over', Happ is a terrific young LH pitcher, but after Saunders twice with the Angels, Lee and Hamels, he will up against a lineup who has seen every type of LH starter and has 4 everyday switch hitters. Key for Phillies is Yankees being over aggressive, if the Yankees are swinging for fences, the Philly starters will thrive, if they relax and play small-ball, they can break them and feast on fastballs from the pen.
Bullpen
Ryan Madsen RH, Chad Durbin RH, Chan Ho Park RH, Scott Eyre LH
As indicated above, Yankees handle hard throwers better than any team in MLB and Madsen, Durbin and Park figure to get lit up if used for multiple innings. They need 7 innings per start to win.
David Robertson RH, Brian Bruney RH, Damaso Marte LH, Phil Coke LH, Joba Chamberlain RH, Alfredo Aceves RH, Phil Hughes RH
Yankee pen is a power pen, big arms and big velocity, strikeout stuff. Robertson has had some arm issues of late, but was terrific when called upon, Bruney got some needed rest and will be up close to 100MPH, can he throw it over the plate? Marte and Coke give them two different LH looks. Aceves, Hughes and Joba were the keys to the plan and all struggled at times in the playoffs, seemingly more with their nerves than with their stuff. Yankees need regular season like dominance from Aceves (10-1), Hughes (1.44 ERA as reliever, 5-1 K/BB ratio) and Joba (dominant and mediocre in maddening variety).
Closer
Mariano Rivera RH
The best. The numbers are ridiculous, not going to belabor them here for the 1,000th time. If he's in the game and the Yankees have a lead, bet Yankees.
Brad Lidge RH
Exactly the sort of pitcher that Yankee bats thrive against (Joe Nathan), and they beat him at the Stadium in May on an Alex Rodriguez HR and Melky Cabrera line drive. If the Philies have a one run lead, its 50/50.
Yankees are strong where you NEED to be to defeat Phillies with LH pitching and several slumping Offensive players who appeared to be coming out of it late against LA. If Jeter and Alex stay hot and are joined by Cano and Teixeira, there isn't anything the Phillies can do to stop them. Says here we'll be bundled up for a parade before we bundle up for ANOTHER parade in Manhattan this November. hold back those SuperHero floats for Thanksgiving and give us pinstripes in six.
