The Magic Carpet

By Paul White

"If Roy Williams doesn't turn out to be the player they thought he would be when they made the trade,I think this would be one of the biggest busts in the history of the league."
- Troy Aikman

Under normal circumstances, Troy Aikman’s assessment of the Roy Williams trade would be dead on. The Cowboys surrendered their first-, third- and sixth-round draft picks this year, and a seventh round pick in 2010, for a wide receiver who has gone over 1,000 yards only once in a five year career.


However, the Cowboys are far from normal. Given Jerry Jones' track record in the NFL draft, the odds are Dallas would have blown at least one, and probably two, of the those selections. Therefore, this deal will be hard pressed to rival the disastrous trade of two first round picks to Seattle for Joey Galloway.

However, the purpose of this article is not to bash the Cowboys' front office. There have been ample opportunities to do that in the past. Hopefully, there will be less of them in the future. In fact, this trade might earn the much maligned Jones some badly needed credibility.

Granted, Jones rolled the dice by giving up so much for Williams. He raised the stakes even higher by releasing the cancerous, yet productive, Terrell Owens. But in the final analysis, this could actually pay off for Dallas due to one simple fact - Roy Williams, if properly utilized, could be the next great Cowboys receiver.

When Williams joined the Cowboys, he hit a Lone Star trifecta of sorts. He has now played for Texas’ premier football program at each level of competition. If this man who starred at Odessa Permian and excelled at the University of Texas can duplicate that success in Dallas, Jerry Jones is going to look very smart for a change. There are several compelling reasons to believe that could actually happen.

The first of those is Williams himself. He has all the tools – speed, size strength. And yet, he has never lived up to his potential in the NFL. The reason for this is quite simple – in high school and college, he was “The Man.” Prior to being drafted by the Lions, he was the premier receiver on every team he was on. More importantly, he shined under those conditions.

That never really happened for him on a consistent basis in Detroit. It was never going to happen in Dallas as long as The Cancer was on the roster. That has all changed. Williams is now the primary focus of the Cowboys' passing attack. Once again, he is “The Man.”

Also, do not discount the importance of Jason Garrett. Contrary to what the media says, the Princeton graduate is just as smart now as he was in 2007, when he was the hottest coaching commodity in the NFL. In fact, it is safe to assume he analyzed what went wrong last season and learned from it. Now that he does not have to placate The Cancer’s fragile ego, do not be surprised if the Dallas offense returns to its 2007 form. Williams, Jason Whitten and Patrick Crayton form a solid receiving corps. Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tayshard Choice comprise a ground attack that should be as good as any in the league.

I have always had a theory about Jerry Jones. As the Cowboys' General Manager, he seems to be handicapped by what we refer to in Texas as a “Wildcatter” mentality. For those unfamiliar with the term, a Wildcatter is someone who drills for oil in an unproven field. It is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. All the early Texas oil fortunes were made this way. Quite a few fortunes were also lost in the same manner.

We always hear about the huge gusher (i.e. a well which produces at a prolific rate). What we don’t hear about are the nineteen dry holes the prospector drilled before striking oil. We have all watched Jones apply this principle in making Dallas’ personnel decisions. While there have been the occasional strikes, there have been too many years like 1995.

That year the Cowboys were able to assemble three picks in the second round. This was a golden opportunity for a team that had just reached the NFC title game and won two out of the last three Super Bowls. By adding three of the top 63 players in a strong draft pool, Dallas could strengthen an already deep roster and separate themselves from the other 31 teams in the league.

With Jones calling the shots, the Cowboys selected RB Sherman Williams of Alabama, TE Kendall Watkins of Mississippi State, and Michigan State OL Shane Hannah. Needless to say, these are not names you will ever find in the Cowboys' Ring of Honor. Hannah never played a down, Watkins caught one pass in his two-year career. Sherman Williams is the only one of this trio who ever contributed, gaining 1,000 yards in five seasons as Emmitt Smith’s back-up.

The draft of 1995, more than any other reason, tells us that trading three picks for Roy Williams might have actually been a smart move. The odds of Jones using all three picks wisely were virtually non-existent. The West Texas native is a known commodity with at least one pro bowl season under his belt.

More than that, he also has a huge upside. And after a string of dry holes, Jones is due to hit a gusher. He is, no doubt, uttering those nine words spoken by every oil man right before the drill bit first pierces the ground -- “This is a big one – I can feel it.”

This time, he might be right.

Paul White is a seasoned sports and political writer and the managing editor of the Texas Star Tribune.

Posted by TMC Staff at 05:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

New York Yankees - 7 (7-6)
Cleveland Indians - 3 (4-9)

Winning Pitcher: Jonathan Albaladejo (1-0)
Losing Pitcher: Jensen Lewis (1-2)

HR: Choo (3)
Garko (1)
Posada (3)

Yesterday we got a fascinating and surprising answer to the age old marketing querie;

'How do you spell Relief?'

A-L-B-A-L-A-D-E-J-O, it seems, is the answer.

As the Yankees sought to cobble together 9 innings from a staff that has been battered by the sudden collapse of its most consistent performer (Chien-Ming Wang), the onus has fallen on Starter AJ Burnett to follow him by going deep into games and saving the overworked bullpen.

Mission accomplished.

Burnett was even WILDER than CC (5 Walks) and Joba (5 Walks), and with Wang's fiasco, its safe to say this is about as poor a beginning this highly valued staff could have imagined for their first four in the New building. AJ gave up an unseemly SEVEN Walks, but only three hits - including two HR, to Sin-Shoo Choo and Ryan Garko. Both Choo and Garko did what you have to do against guys like Burnett, guess fastball, zone an area and swing all out if you get it there - what players call 'running into one' since your bat is already headed to the spot the ball arrives in. Sweet swings for both, and no knock on AJ who was otherwise unhittable (the third hit, by Hafner was a bloop).

AJ gave the Yankees 6.1, but when he finally lost the strike-zone completely (a la the 'bad' AJ of Marlin days), he walked the bases loaded in the 7th with only the one out and Albaladejo came on, with the Yankees trailing 3-1 and the possibility of losing 3 of 4 staring them in the face.

He got two weak ground balls to end the threat and risk injury from a pumped up High-5 from the hulking AJ on the top step of the dugout. This game was salvaged right there.

For their part, the Indians had received a strong start from Yankee pariah, Carl Pavano, who effectively shut them down on a harmless 4 hits, 1 run over his 6 innings.

After Albaladejo did his Houdini act, Yankees welcomed stud reliever, Rafael Perez, rudely, with a 2B from Robinson Cano and an RBI 1B for Hideki Matsui to make it 3-2. Indians then went to Jensen Lewis, Friday's tough-luck loser and Joe Girardi decided to pinch-hit for Catcher Jose Molina with Jorge Posada.

Posada launched a high-arcing fly ball to the RF wall and Indian RF Crowe leaped...

Two fans were reaching for the ball and they and Crowe all whiffed on the catch, but the ball caromed off one fan and into the seats for a 2 Run, go-ahead, pinch-hit, HR.

'Hip, Hip, JOR-GE!'

The play was impossible to diagnose, even with replay (if the fan had interfered, it would be ground-rule 2B), but the Umpires did the right thing and called for Replay review, and 8 1/2 minutes later...

It stood. 4-3 Yankees.

Brian Bruney was perfect, again, in the 8th and the Yankees tacked on 3 runs when poor Cody Ransom matched Hafner's early bloop into sun-drenched LF for a bases clearing 3 RBI, 2B. 7-3.

Mo came in to get the work, in a non-save situation and that was that.

Yankees survive the series, 2-2, and the week, 4-3, despite being BLOWN out three times.

Posted by Matthew at 01:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Cleveland Indians - 22
New York Yankees - 4

Winning Pitcher: Fausto Carmona (1-2)
Losing Pitcher: Chien-Ming Wang (0-3)

HR: Teixeira (3)
Choo (2)
A. Cabrera (1)
Sizemore (4)
DeRosa (3)
Martinez (4)
Hafner (4)

The 1960 World Series featured a Yankee team, laden with Hall of Famers, who blew out the Pittsburgh Pirates three times in the series. The beatings were so complete, no observer could imagine the Pirates surviving the onslaught.

The Pirates won the Series, in Game 7 on a walk-off HR by 2B Bill Mazerowski. A shot that put him in the HOF, the way Manny's departure put Dustin Pedroia in the MVP chair. People like a little guy who achieves more than most thought possible...

The 2004 American League Championship Series, saw the Yankees blow the Red Sox off the field in Game 3 at Fenway Park, 19-8, observers commented upon how utterly dominant the addition of Alex Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui made the Yankees...

The Sox, of course, won the next 4 games and the Yankees have never won another Playoff series, Alex Rodriguez, has won 3 AL MVP awards but never won a Championship and Hideki Matsui's knees are close to sending him into an honorable retirement.

Baseball is a game of endurance, of adversity, of adjustment. Six months long with endless ups and downs. So far this WEEK, the Yankees have been blown off the field by the Rays on Monday, 15-5, then won crisp back to back games to take that series, then been blow out 10-2 by the Indians on Thursday, only to bounce back and win a tight one, 6-5 yesterday.

Then yesterday, for the 3rd consecutive time, Chien-Ming Wang failed to do anything of consequence and was blown off the field in the 2nd Inning in the midst of a 14 run inning!

Chien, who came into the season with a 54-20 MLB record and spent last April throwing a 2-hit shutout at Fenway Park and a 1-0 victory over these Cleveland Indians and their ace, a guy named CC, has now lost 3 games in a row for the first time in his MLB career (99 Starts) and sent millions of New Yorkers onto Suicide watch. Truly, for us, if you cannot trust Chien-Ming Wang, there is nobody left...

The game itself is irrelevant. Chien had nothing, his replacement, a short-timer from AAA was treated rudely and a succession of overworked relievers got tatooed similarly.

As Johnny Damon put it '"He's making it real tough on our bullpen right now, we have to count on guys in our 'pen to go seven or eight innings. We have six losses on the year right now, and he's got three of them. In all three of those games, we've been blown out and we've had to go to our bullpen, so maybe our bullpen's not sharp the following days. I don't know what more to say, but hopefully he can figure it out, because it'd be tough to keep on going like this."

The only positive news from a Yankee perspective is the return of a productive Mark Teixeira, who hit a monstrous 2 Run HR in the 1st Inning that had Yankee fans imagining good things before the deluge...

Cleveland is an honest team and a good barometer...they play hard, have two brilliant hitters (Sizemore, Martinez) and a bevy of big swinging thumpers who KILL mediocre pitching. You have to chuck it to beat 'em, and if you don't - they'll hand you yours. That is what they've done in two of the first three games of the series, the matchup tomorrow seems like you could play it 50 times without the Yankees losing, but watching Wang, suddenly go from dominant to incompetent after never struggling in his career has proven that, truly, anything can, and WILL happen.

Six games this week. 3-3. Twelve games this season. 6-6.

Tomorrow is the rubber game, AJ Burnett against the despised one, his former teammate, Carl Pavano.

Posted by Matthew at 04:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

New York Yankees - 6 (6-5)
Cleveland Indians - 5 (3-8)

WInning Pitcher: Brian Bruney (2-0)
Losing Pitcher: Jensen Lewis (1-1)

HR: Mark DeRosa (2)
Johnny Damon (1)
Mark Teixeira (2)
Melky Cabrera (1)
Robinson Cano (3)
Derek Jeter (3)

A Strange Game.

Yankees had Joba Chamberlain on the hill, facing journeyman, Anthony Reyes, and got FIVE HR's from the Offense, but had to scrape from behind to eek out a 1-run victory. The result, while indicative of a certain grittiness on their part, is a cause for some slight concern, as Joba (like CC the game before) was really not sharp and was without excuse, facing a team of big swingers who should be tailor made for his arsenal. The issue, as it was with CC - is strikes, or rather, their inability to THROW them...Joba had five walks to match CC's output and that allowed the few hits he gives up to be of the RBI variety.

The Yankees expect FAR better from their young power pitcher and, this outing, certainly makes one wonder if his shoulder may have some residual issues that he isn't admitting to. HIs velocity, which reached 95 at times, was 91-92 for most of the game and that just will not do. Until we see more of what we saw last season in his 12 starts, there are going to be concerns about his arm health - 23 year olds who lose 6-7 MPH after an injury shutdown cause Guru to lose sleep!

Joba battled through it, as best he could, but really could not muster the sort of stuff he is accustomed to and the Indians, a fastball hitting group not asked to cope with the better heat, took advantage and a 5-3 lead by the time of Joba's exit, after 4.2 innings.

Unlike the previous game, when two Yankee relievers (Marte, Veras) poured accelerant on the fire...this time the Yankee relief was exceptional, providing the final 4.1 innings of scorelessness that was needed to allow the Yankee Offense to come all the way back and win. Phil Coke, Jonathan Albaladejo and Brian Bruney all were in complete control and Mariano Rivera, entering to his signature 'Enter Sandman' for the first time, across the street from his old office, got touched (the nerve!) for two hits by the Indians #8 and #9 batters (81 year old Tony Graffanino, Asdrubal Cabrera) and had to clamp down to strike out Grady Sizemore and Mark DeRosa (twice due to a missed call) and secure the win.

Offensively, the Yankees reached the seats those five times, but each was a SOLO affair, causing the closeness of the contest. Damon and Teixeira went back-to-back early, Melky got his first of the year on a no-doubter, Robinson Cano sent one to the 2nd deck for his 3rd and the Captain, Derek Jeter, who is hitting .600 this season in the 8th and 9th inning, took Lewis out to RF for his 3rd and the game, his third 'decider' in 4 games this week.

Today it's Chien-Ming Wang trying to rediscover the magic against the team that first revealed he was not superhuman in the 2007 playoffs - the Indians will not help him, he'll have to be on his game to handle a strong offensive team that knows him well.

Posted by Matthew at 12:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Cleveland Indians 10 (3-7)
New York Yankees 2 (5-5)

Winning Pitcher: Cliff Lee (1-2)
Losing Pitcher: Jose Vera (0-1)

HR: Posada (2)
Sizemore (3)
Martinez (3)

The day finally arrived.

For months, Guru's daily trip to Yankees.com has been greeted by the countdown to Opening Day at the New Yankee Stadium and the Date 'April 16, 2009' has been emblazoned on my noggin. The sun was glorious in a cloudless sky and the anticipation was high, the ceremonies grand (Bernie WIlliams standing alone in Center Field, how else? - playing a self-composed Jazz Guitar version of 'Take me out to the Ballgame' had me crying real live Pinstriped Tears...Bernie was hurt being cut and chafed at missing this as a player, most organizations would have made him persona non grata, the Yankee way was on display.)

Ultimately, the setup was better than the follow-through, as the Yankees looked a little tight all afternoon, hung on by their fingernails through a gritty but uneven (5 Walks) by LH/CC Sabathia (the 2007 AL Cy Young Award Winner for the Cleveland Indians) and took their at-bats, typically long, drawn-out affairs as if they had someplace better to be - as if that was even possible, on April 16, 2009.

Facing CC, was LH/Cliff Lee (the 2008 AL Cy Young Award Winner for the Cleveland Indians), coming off two horrendous losses and Lee was in control from the beginning, taking advantage of Yankee impatience to send them chasing and surrendered only a long BOMB HR to dead CF by Jorge Posada, who continues to R-A-K-E with thump. Lee pitched 6 Innings, 7H, 1R, 3BB, 4K and got the decision.

For his part, CC pitched 5.2 Innings, 5H, 1R, 5BB, 4K, but his 122 pitches forced him from the game in the 6th inning, which would play a huge role in deciding this one.

With a 1-1 game on the line, Edwar Ramirez relieved and gave up a 1B, loading the bases, he, in turn, was relieved by Phil Coke who got the 3rd out, after the Yankees went out in the Top of the 7th...

The game blew wide open.

Jose Veras, who has brilliant stuff but seriously erratic results, walked 1 and gave up 2 hits, without retiring a batter and only avoids being the subject of Preschool Death Squads (Steinbrenner device for dealing with wayward relievers) due to the HORRENDOUS performance of the next pitcher, Damaso Marte, who was misused and ineffective in 2008 after coming over in the Nady trade with Pittsburgh, was resigned (mystifying Yankee fans) for big dollars in '09 and has been awful, dreadful and looking every bit of the Red Sox version of Eric Gagne...On this day, he 'held' the Indians to SIX runs, on 3 H, 1 BB and 2HR (one of them a Grand Slam by Grady Sizemore on a frisbee slider...).

In an instant, an interesting 1-1 game between the two Cleveland Cy Young LH turned into a joke, pretty tough to survive NINE run innings!

And that, in terms of the game itself, was that.

For the Yankees, roster moves await, Xavier Nady is done, David Robertson, who pitched very well last year is back up from AAA to take his slot and pitched the 8th and 9th scoreless yesterday, certainly Veras is a candidate to go down for a stint, Marte is a serious veteran and poses more problems, he may chafe at Minors, has no trade value and looks, more and more, like this year's version of Latroy Hawkins, who was a Yankee catastrophe but landed in Houston and dominated after being cut by Yankees. As someone who has seen them come and go for decades, the reality is some guys just don't like it here and don't perform well in this environment...going from Pittsburgh to this day in the Bronx is about as big a contrast as the results for Marte - better to take the hit and send him away too soon, then wait...wait...wait and watch these scenes unfold. If they are committed to him, Girardi needs to use him as INTENDED - as a LH specialist, not a set-up man - Phil Coke, who was a dominant starter in Minors, has the arm and the repertoire to be stretched out, he should be the set-up LH and Marte can come in an do his thing (K or BB to LH hitter). Minors offer help with Melancon and Hughes dominant arms to bring up.

Yankee numbers point to the illusion of small-sample statistics. The OVERALL show a team that has been hitting (5.4 runs per game) and not pitching (5.4 ERA), but the reality is the Offense is ailing with all the power hitters hurt (Alex, Tex, Nady) and only 4 batters contributing (Swisher, Jeter, Posada, Cano), the lineup is filled with holes right now, particularly with all the RH thump gone - its no accident their two worst games came against LH studs (Kazmir, Lee), they don't have the horses there.

As for the pitching, its a reverse situation, with all BUT 4 pitchers throwing well, only (Marte, Veras, Wang and Coke) have struggled. Wang, Coke are not concerns and Veras, Marte offer options.

10 game diagnosis?

Pitching looks great. Offense needs Alex and a healthy Tex. Until then, Pitching will have to carry things.

More day baseball in the beautiful new palace today, we'll be here afterwards.

Posted by Matthew at 01:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

New York Yankees - 4 (5-4)
Tampa Bay Rays - 3 (4-5)

Winning Pitcher: Brian Bruney (1-0)
Losing Pitcher: Troy Percival (0-1)

'The Battle of the Andy's' took place at The Trop on Wednesday afternoon, as longtime Yankee stalwart, Andy Pettitte, faced off against Tampa Bay's surprising rotation survivor, Andy Sonnanstine.

Both pitched well.

Sonnanstine, who is one of those guys who lights up opposition eyes with is seemingly mundane arsenal and then shuts them down with pinpoint control and change of speeds, did just that, surrendering only a monster BOMB HR to white-hot Robinson Cano, wearing #42 (they all were) in honor of the man he was named for - Jackie Robinson. Cano's 2 run blast tied the game in the Top of the 3rd after the Rays had scratched out a couple of their own, and the Rays took the lead in the Bottom of the 4th on a HR by Carlos Pena - who looks locked in on the field and in the batter's box - a terrific player, who, for whatever reason, took years to develop it at the MLB level - he spent time with Oakland, Detroit, Boston and the Yankees and the opportunity and success never came together, but he has been a FORCE since arriving in Tampa Bay and provides and anchor for years to come.

For his part, Andy Pettitte, kept the game close, pitching 7.1 Innings of 3 run baseball for his second consecutive strong start, although he did not factor in the decision. Brian Bruney, came in and struck out Pat Burrell and Carlos Pena on 8 pitches, giving him 5 strikeouts from 5 batters faced in this series, having struck out Upton, Crawford and Pena in the 9th Inning on Tuesday. He threw just 18 pitches to get the 15 strikes and only 1 ball.

No need to belly-ache about the 8th Inning Guy - its clearly Bruney and you have to wonder why Girardi used him in the 7th in the KC game the pen blew, his perfect innings, control and 97 MPH look good to Guru!

Yankees tied the game in the top of the 8th on back-to-back 2B's by Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon.

Cody Ransom, benched for the past two over his weak start, got a chance at redemption, pinch-hitting in the 9th and responded with a ringing 2B to CF and then, the Captain, who had made a circus play earlier (Cano also made a highlight play) and put the Rays away the day before with a 3 Run BOMB, finished them off again with an RBI 1B that drove in Ransom with the winning tally.

Then it was time for the only MLB Player who still wears #42 EVERY day, Mariano Rivera, who was his customary self for an effortless close-out to a successful road trip.

Yanks won 5 of final 7, survived 3 Home Openers for opponents, took 2 of 3 from the Rays in Tampa Bay and have gotten consistent Offensive production even while carrying some struggling sticks and missing their #3 (Teixeira is playing and playing good defense, but his wrist is clearly hurting and he is a shell at the plate) and #4 (Alex) hitters. They blew one late to KC, had no chance on the two bad Wang starts and the opening day CC fiasco, but they seem to be responding to Girardi and the new elements seem to have created a NEW team, rather than the situation last season where veterans were trying to deal with the change from Joe Torre.

It's Joe Girardi these days.

There was some bad news, however, as Yankee RF joined the near surreal list of injuries this team has suffered in recent years, blowing out his surgically repaired elbow on a seemingly harmless toss to 2B in KC - the Yankees have the depth to survive, but its a player coming off .297/25/97 and in his final year before Free Agency, and that certainly makes it tough to replace the production. Bad news for X.

Yankees will probably bring up AAA player of the week, 1B Juan Miranda, who is just one of the rampaging Scranton Wilkes/Barre club that has opened their defense of their back to back International League titles with a crisp 7-0, led by CF Austin Jackson and Miranda. Yanks don't need another OF, but with Swisher playing every day in RF and Tex hurting, they will need Miranda to back-up 1B. They are going to need Alex healthy when he returns, losing Nady makes them a bit LH biased, but with

F-O-U-R Switchhitters (Melky, Tex, Posada, Swisher) they should have enough RH thump.

Posted by Matthew at 01:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

New York Yankees - 7 (4-4)
Tampa Bay Rays - 2 (4-4)

Winning Pitcher: AJ Burnett (2-0)
Losing Pitcher: JP Howell (0-1)

A night after a blowout, filled with sloppy defense and still-in-Spring-Training Pitching, the Yankees and the Rays played an instant classic at the Trop last night - a scintillating pitcher's duel between two hard throwing RH studs (AJ Burnett, Matt Garza).

And, on this night, although Garza had the advantage of a terrific first name - AJ got the cake.

Yankees loaded the bases right away in the Top of the 1st inning on back-to-back singles from Brett Gardner/Derek Jeter and a walk to Mark Teixeira (nursing a sore wrist). Garza then got tough and struck out the sizzling hot bat of Nick Swisher before Jorge Posada fought off an outside pitch and drove it to deep left to score Gardner with the critical first run in a game that was clearly not going to see many.

From there, Garza settled in and began mowing down Yankees and strutting around the mound, going so far as to buzz Swisher under the chin when he arrived at the plate during the 4th Inning. Refreshingly, Swisher, one of three Yankees who are 2nd Generation MLB (Shelly Duncan, Robinson Cano) did NOT stare at the mound, grab his crotch, charge the hill...he just stepped back, got his bearings, stepped back into the box...

And hit the next pitch 400 Feet over the Right Centerfield wall, his 4th HR in his 6th Yankee start, replacing a guy who had 4 HR in 189 at-bats in 2008.

2-0 Yankees.

Meanwhile, AJ Burnett was CRUISIN'...with only a harmless walk to Pat Burrell marring perfection over the first 6 innings. Burnett just looks like a different guy than the rattled, wild-eyed, emotional power pitcher whose body seemed as out-of-control as his temper for all those years of underperformance and injury. Now, with his Roy Halladay-inspired calm, he looks like a Zen master..quietly rocking his body back and firing those cannon shots with an easy toss. He mixes in two speeds of curve-balls, an occasional change-up and can dart the heat up or down. The contrast between the low '70's curve, the mid '80s slider and the high '90s gas makes it tough on the hitter and the calm motion and self-control keep him in the strike zone.

He held the no-hitter until the bottom of the 7th, when Carl Crawford put a BEAUTIFUL at-bat on him and laced a clean 1B to LF, then, momentarily...the old 'Bad' AJ surfaced, as a clearly shaken Burnett lost his focus and left two successive pitches out over the plate against two terrific hitters (Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena) and they each smacked singles...when Pat Burrell flied-out, it was a 2-2 game. The No-Hitter, Shutout and Lead all lost...

In the top of the 8th, the Rays brought in last year's stud set-up man, JP Howell (who looks 12 years old), and Brett Gardner burned Crawford in LF by smashing a 2B over his head - there is NOTHING that a hitter likes better than getting to see the OF's Number, when he has tried to play you short and you've forced him to retreat with his back to the plate...on Monday, the Rays did so twice and came up with circus catches - on this night, the balls kept flying. With another hit from Jeter and the Yankees sitting with 1st and 3rd, Teixeira came up, hitting RH for the first time since the wrist injury, it was obvious that he was feeling uncomfortable and JUST as obvious what a critical situation this was. Teixeira did the best he could with a long, lazy fly ball to break the tie. 3-2 Yankees.

Burnett came out for the bottom of the 8th and dominated, finishing his night with 8IP/9K/1BB/3H/2R, the kind of performance the Yankees needed with a tired bullpen coming off innings of Monday relief.

In the 9th, facing Dan Wheeler, Cano and Melky Cabrera (hitting for Nady, who he'd replaced in RF during the 8th) had a 1B and Brett Gardner smashed a 2B to dead CF, this time burning BJ Upton who turned to chase as Crawford had the inning before. This was Gardner's best game as a Yankee and, if he can swing with authority - he is a keeper, his legs are a given. 4-2 Yankees.

Derek Jeter stepped in, with 2 soft 1B's already in the game and blasted a 3 Run HR into the RF seats that the OF never moved on, the 'no-doubter' that gave Gardner and Jeter 6 hits combined on the night and put the game out of reach.

Brian Bruney, who pitched a dominant 7th Inning on Sunday, before the 8th inning meltdown by Phil Coke, came in to face the formidable top of the Rays order and mowed down Upton/Crawford/Longoria on just 10 pitches, striking out the side and sealing the Yankees best win of the first week of 2009.

Today its afternoon baseball at the Trop, the battle of the Andy's - Pettitte and Sonnanstine, should be one to be decided by the offenses...

Posted by Matthew at 12:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Tampa Bay Rays - 15 (4-3)
New York Yankees - 5 (3-4)

Winning Pitcher: Scott Kazmir (2-0)
Losing Pitcher: Chien-Ming Wang (0-2)

This one looked like a blowout before it began, and lived up to its billing once the teams hit the field.

For the Rays, one of the few things that did NOT go right in 2008 was their play against the Yankees, who handled them 11 of 18 times and did better as the season went on.

On a night when they hoisted their AL Pennant and AL Eastern Division Crown in their mausoleum of a Concrete Box - 'The Trop' (like a wedding in a Mall)...

...and sent out their fire-balling LH Ace, Scott Kazmir, against a Yankee lineup missing its #3 and #4 hitters (Rodriguez and Teixeira) from the Right Side and carrying a left side of the infield (Cody Ransom and Derek Jeter) both from the Right Side, who had combined to go a combined 2 for their last 37 against far more modest arms.

For the Yankees, coming off a brutal loss the day before on an 8th Inning meltdown by reliever Phil Coke (who was horrible again and is, as mentioned yesterday, in need of some AAA time to sort out his delivery from the stretch...) and relying on Chien-Ming Wang to be back in form in his 2nd MLB start since his June 15 broken foot, the chances seemed iffy from the outset.

Ten minutes into the game, those chances had all but evaporated.

Chien-Ming Wang was making his 97th MLB Start and had only lost two in a row ONE time before last night (although he lost 2 straight to Cleveland in the '07 ALDS), but has yet to look comfortable or throw at his accustomed velocity (94-96) or location (D-O-W-N, down, down...) and he had that lost deer look he gets when his stuff isn't there...if you watch as much Yankee baseball as Guru does, and have seen every inning Wang has ever thrown...you knew, and you also knew something ELSE that was important...

'Chuck' was on at 8PM, so there was an alternative...

Wang is proven, so there is time to get him right and, the Yankee minds/hearts were almost certainly not in Tampa Bay but on their historic Thursday date...one of the biggest moments in the history of sports greatest franchise - the opening of the New Yankee Stadium in The Bronx.

On the field, the carnage was mainly inflicted by Carlos Pena (Guru cannot tell a lie, Pena, Upton and Longoria are fantasy stalwarts for his teams...and with the outcome never in doubt, it wasn't such a bad night for some stat-padding at my Yankees expense!). Pena had a Grand Slam off Wang's 'relief' that brought in the final of his 8 runs surrendered in 1 Inning plus, giving him 6 RBI in the first two innings!

BJ Upton is 100% healthy, hit the ball, stole bases and simply made one of the greatest catches you will EVER see in a baseball game running, Willie Mays-like directly into the dead CF wall with his back completely turned to the plate and snatching a monstrous blast off the fence at the last possible second off the bat of Xavier Nady one of the only three Yankees with thump from the RH side in this configuration. Carl Crawford, hit the ball, stole bases and made his OWN masterful play to steal a 2B from Nick Swisher, who continued his torrid hitting with his 3rd HR (10th RBI) and the blast Crawford caught to go with another Walk - he even pitched a scoreless inning in Gar-BAGE time and recorded his first MLB Strikeout off bodybuilding immortal, Gabe Kapler.

Swisher, in 7 games and 20 at-bats, has SEVEN Extra Base hits, replacing a guy, Wilson Betemit, who had 4 HR and 24 RBI in 189 at-bats in 2008. Given the unexpected losses of Alex and Tex, he is an irreplaceable part for a lineup that is designed around those two in the middle. The Yankees are going to have to pitch and catch during the injury period, while those two heal, Matsui and Wang re-acclimate and Jeter finds his stroke.

One player who apparently does not need more time is Jorge Posada, who drove in multiple runs for the 3rd consecutive game, with yet another monster 2B in the gap. Posada, a freak who caught deep into the playoffs every year for a decade without ONCE going on the DL, has now come back from tricky Shoulder surgery looking like his All-Star ass never left. He's got 5 Extra Base hits in his first 20 at-bats, to go with 8 RBI's returning to his spot in place of Jose Molina who managed only 18 RBI in 286 at-bats in 2008 and 20 extra base hits - meaning that Posada, like Swisher, will provide more production by mid-May than his predecessor did all year long.

Yankees have AJ Burnett on the hill next up, facing Matt Garza, which should give the LH-heavy lineup a better opportunity to score some early runs and close the preview series and the road trip with a battle of Andy's, sending Pettitte to face Sonnanstine - who, inexplicably, was retained over Edwin Jackson (shipped to Detroit for a bucket of warm spit named Matt Joyce).

Two more before the big game...we'll be here to chronicle all of them.

Posted by Matthew at 06:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Kansas City Royals 6 (3-3)
New York Yankees 4 (3-3)

Winning Pitcher: Cruz (1-0)
Losing Pitcher: Coke (0-1)

On a day when Joba Chamberlain made his 2009 Debut against Royal Ace, Gil Meche, there were a couple of Yankee concerns;

1.) With Alex Rodriguez rehabbing his surgically repaired hip, new slugger Mark Teixeira has now missed successive games with a bum wrist.

2.) With Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui off to slow starts, Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon resting, the Yankee lineup was dangerously thin against the solid Meche, with Cody Ransom, Brett Gardner, Jose Molina and Melky Cabrera all swinging light wood - this was not a day for letting cheap runs score.

3.) With Meche on the hill and Joakim Soria as their closer, the time for a thin lineup to break through was going to have to come towards the end of Meche's start in the 6-7-8 innings.

For the most part, Joba set the Yankee up for success with 6 effective innings, 5 K's and only 1 Walk, being touched only for a solo HR by John Buck on an ill-advised (Buck can't catch up to the fastball) Slider that hung in the zone like a pumpkin.

Things looked good for Joba, but a bizarre ground ball that scooted off the wet ground, under BOTH 1B Nick Swisher and 2B Robinson Cano, allowed two unearned runs to be plated by the Royals.

Still the Yankees will take this sort of outing, every time. He threw all his pitches, threw first pitch strikes, was able to ramp up his velocity to high '90s on demand and seemed relaxed and fluid throughout, probably having his best inning in the final frame (6th).

As expected, the Yankee lineup looked anemic against an effective Meche, but DID find a way to break through in the top of the 7th on a clutch RBI 2B by Xavier Nady, an RBI single from Cano to tie and a modest DP ball from Melky that nonetheless plated the go-ahead run.

When Brian Bruney dominated the Royals in the Bottom of the 7th, the Sweep was in the air...

Girardi brought Damaso Marte in for the Bottom of the 8th and he did his job, getting two quick outs, but Joe brought in Jose Veras to face Billy Butler, and Veras - who has electric stuff, but struggled in '08 with back-to-back outings (he pitched yesterday) committed the sin of walking Butler with two outs and Girardi went to Phil Coke to get the last out of the 8th, which, with Mariano lurking could be seen as the Royals last shot.

Coke, who dominated in 12 September innings last year (1 run surrendered) and has casual LH heat in the mid '90s, is a strikeout pitcher who makes hitters miss (19 k's in 17 Yankee innings, 5 in 2.2 IP this season). But he was touched up by the two weakest hitters in the Oriole lineup earlier in the week (Cesar Izturis, Greg Zaun) and against Kansas City, who'd managed only 3 Earned Runs in 25 2/3 Innings against Yankee pitching, Coke managed to surrender 3 Earned Runs to the next three hitters -
Brayan Pena (as 3rd String Catcher, holding his MLB job by a thread and career sub .400 Slugger) hit a 2B to tie the game and score Butler, then Alberto Callaspo (another sub .400 Slugger) followed with a bloop that Gardner broke poorly on to take the lead and John Buck (the 5th of 5 '09 hitters, with sub .400 Career Slugging that hit Phil Coke to drive in runs) adding insurance with another 2B.

Ouch.

Coke's arm is live, no question, and he is not one to give up on after a poor first week, but Pitchers know there is something wrong when the sort of stuff he brings is being handled by a series of hitters who have proven to be weak. Usually, it comes down to location - leaving the ball too far over the plate, but it can also signal that he is tipping his pitches (something Girardi will be expert in recognizing). Yankees have serious depth at AAA and should not hesitate to give Coke a tune-up stretch at Scranton Wilkes/Barre is things don't quickly reverse themselves...this was a 'Win' that turned to a 'Loss' due to Coke's issues and, with 3 coming up in Tampa with the Rays - a win they needed to book. The schedule makers were exceedingly kind to the Yankees, sending them to play two last place clubs in Baltimore and Kansas City and they can't be happy with .500 Baseball against them.

So...it's on to Tampa Bay. 4 Good Starts from the rotation in a row and solid work from the rest of the bullpen, but the lineup is a concern with all that thump on the sidelines healing and the predictable failures of Ransom and Gardner. Melky, like Wilson Betemit, is simply not a player with the sort of makeup or skill set to play off the bench - they are asking him to do something, at 24, that is not going to work out. If they remain committed to Gardner, they need to ship Melky for a lower upside OF who CAN play once a week effectively.

See you tomorrow!

Posted by Matthew at 03:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Red Sox Steve

The first time I became aware of BU hockey, I was about 10 years old. When the Boston Bruins flagship TV station was WSBK, they would televise the Beanpot tournament (the first 2 Monday nights in February, as if you needed to know that), and I got to see what college hockey was all about. The players were huge, the game was fast, and here they were, playing in one of America's oldest arenas, and the home of one of the NHL's original six teams, Boston Gaahdin. Growing up playing youth hockey in Rhode Island, my friends and I would often go to Schneider Arena or Meehan Auditorium to watch either Providence College (led in the '80s by goalie Chris Terreri and coach Lou Lamoriello) or Brown hockey games. I was exposed to college hockey from a very young age.

When I was 17 and finishing my junior year in high school, I recall being invited to the Frozen Four semifinals, which were taking place in Providence, RI. I turned down the ticket, and missed one of the greatest games in college hockey history - the Maine-Michigan game: 28 seconds into the 3rd overtime, Maine's Dan Shermerhorn beat Michigan goalie Marty Turco to send Maine to the championship game against BU, who had defeated Minnesota later that same day. I will never forget it - one of my first days on my new job as a busboy, watching the game that just kept going on ESPN. Definitely had made a mistake choosing work over the Frozen Four. BU wins the 1995 championship in RI that Saturday, its first since 1978 when the Terriers beat the hated bc eagles (why bother capitalizing... if you went to BU before me, after me, or with me, and you were a hockey fan, you hated the BC hockey team... and you can repeat the derisive cheer without needing a drumbeat in the background...).

1995. 1978. These teams had some legendary names. Silk. O'Callahan. Craig. Drury. Grier. Noble. Pandolfo. Kelleher. I'm 32 now - I was less than a year old when the '78 team won it all, but I remember seeing Silk, O'Callahan and Craig's names and photos in the old Walter Brown arena, along with the 1980 Olympic hero, Mike Eruzione, a BU alum whose name is etched in hockey history forever as the captain of the gold-medal winning 1980 US Olympic team. You better believe he's still associated with his alma mater - an assistant coach for a while, and now in charge of Special Outreach for BU Athletics.

The dominance of Chris Drury - I started going to BU games in 1996, but, being a sports fan growing up in New England, had heard Drury's name long before that - he was a star pitcher on the 1991 Trumbull, CT Little League team that had won the world championships. From the time I got there in the fall of 1996 to the time Drury graduated in the spring of 1998, I got to watch one of the most incredible athletes of all time almost every weekend. Drury scored from the point, Drury scored from the faceoff, Drury scored in double coverage, he beat the goalie high, he beat the goalie low, power-play, short-handed, didn't matter; with Drury out there, the opposition was overmatched. It was easier for the opposing coach to cover his eyes during a Drury shift. Hobey Baker winner, Little League world champ, NCAA hockey champion... Drury simply lives in a trophy case with a house built around it!

During the years I was a student, Drury, Bates, Noble, Grier, Kealty, Kelleher, Sylvia, Bates had graduated, while new names donned the Scarlet and White for seasons filled with runs at the Boston college hockey trifecta: Beanpot, Hockey East, NCAA titles. John Sabo, Carl Corazzini, Jason Tapp, Rick DiPietro, Dan LaCouture, Tom Poti, Colin Sheen, Pat Aufiero, Jack Baker, Tommi Degermann, Chris Dyment. The list goes on and on.

There was the time in 2000 when a close friend of mine and I went to T's Pub on Commonwealth Avenue to watch an NCAA game. The Terriers were playing in a regional matchup against St. Lawrence at the Pepsi Arena in Albany. Again, I had friends that had made the trek west on I-90, but I skipped it, this time in favor of academics (see Mom and Dad, I ***WAS*** responsible in college!). This turned out to be the longest college hockey game in NCAA history - Rick Dipietro essentially goaltended for 2 games - he let up 2 goals in the 1st 3 periods of play, and shut out the Saints for the 2nd 3 periods of (overtime) play, finally giving up the game-winner in the 4th overtime. An incredible effort, but a heartbreaking end to the season for the Terriers.

No doubt, I'm not the biggest BU hockey fan ever, especially when compared to my roommates sophomore year. Growing up in Massachusetts (they still have the accents to prove it), these guys knew much more about the ins and outs of the program, and probably still do. I even gave up a Beanpot ticket one year (right behind the net) for a date with a girl (young and stupid, can you tell?). That doesn't mean the games I saw were any less enjoyable - this program is competitive in Hockey East, and the Beanpot and the NCAAs often, which makes the experience of being a fan that much more rewarding. When your coach is in his 36th year, and was a player in the same program like God Parker (oops, I mean Jack Parker. Jack.), it's just another sign of a stable and successful program, no doubt about it.

Section 8 - the Dawg Pound. I sat near the top of the section, right across from Sasquatch (yes, I know his "real" name!). The band seated across the ice starts playing Iron-Man, and he comes down from his seat, takes his shirt off to reveal the hairiest back and chest on any living homo sapien, rivalling only that of, yes, a Sasquatch. He riles up the fans, who then point out the difference between the opposing team's goalie in the net below ("Sieve!") and our guy, Sasquatch. This happened every single home game, and of course, Sasquatch took the B Line to the Fleet Center (TD Banknorth Arena) for Beanpots and Hockey East Tournament games as well. Walking around my neighborhood in NYC, I still want to scream "1949" at someone wearing one of those yellow "Superfan" T-shirts, but they probably won't even know what I'm talking about.

2009 - Have followed BU here and there, but remember, being a Boston sports fan since 2000 has essentially been a "professional" experience, which drowns out the collegiate sports for a fan with my schedule (and cable plan!) - Superbowls, World Series, NBA championships have begun to feel like annual rites of passage from one season to another... "which team is it going to be this year?" or, "what do I make for the Superbowl party?" are the frequent topics of conversation. This championship was different only because it reminds me of all the years that have passed since the last one and what it's like to be a BU hockey fan - I've been to BU hockey games (and Midnight Madness) at Walter Brown much more than any other arena in my lifetime. Gilroy, Connolly, Cohen, Yip, McCarthy and all the rest are now etched into the names of Terrier hockey history forever. No doubt, some young kid watching somewhere is paying attention to what's going on at BU. Congratulations to the 2009 NCAA Men's Hockey National Champions, the Terriers of Boston University.

Posted by Red Sox Steve at 12:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

New York Yankees - 6 (3-2)
Kansas City Royals - 1 (2-3)

Winning Pitcher: CC Sabathia (1-1)
Losing Pitcher: Horacio Ramirez (0-1)

HR: Swisher (2)

After the first hitter of the ballgame, last night in Kaufman Stadium, Guru reflected upon the tendency to 'overweight' Opening Day and, how little the absurdity of high drama that Sports Media attributes to all things 'Yankees' changes with new evidence. With the PREPONDERANCE of evidence.

I found this piece, from May 20, 1999...the writer, Jack Curry (currently recovering from a hit-and-run injury), reacting to the Yankees slow start...somehow overlooked that they'd won 2 of the previous 3 World Series and were coming off a year when they'd gone 125-50...

.After witnessing a listless performance by Hideki Irabu and a lethargic effort by the Yankees against a 23-year-old pitcher who was recalled from Class AAA today, Joe Torre might want to reconsider his decision to return to manage this sputtering team. It would have been easier for him to watch this torturous display on television.'

...Torre, of course, managed to survive his suffering well enough to win the next two World Series, 4 of the next 6 American League Pennants and the next E-I-G-H-T AL East Divisional Titles.

Teams 'sputter' on occasion, that is Baseball. These are Professionals, every one, they get up the next day and, more often than not, they play to their ability - which can be ascertained by a look at what they've done, their health and age (has their been a pattern of decline) and the relative strength of the opponent. You do the same thing at YOUR job after an off-day, or week...

29 year olds don't lose their spots overnight.

Chien-Ming Wang didn't 'pop' like a bubble, a 54-20 mirage...

CC Sabathia proved the theory for him. That first hitter, wicked knee high 95 MPH lasers an inch from the corner of either side of the plate. He's healthy. Yawn.

Because when a guy like CC is feeling good, you need more weapons than the ones the Royals bring to the park. Facing a loaded Oriole lineup with your weak stuff is a smackdown waiting to happen, as CC and Wang BOTH discovered. Kansas City with your nasty on, is a mismatch.

And it was, the third night of great starting pitching, sharp defense, and stellar bullpen work and the fifth night of THUMP. Don't these guys know the AL's Leading Slugger is missing?

Well, they do. After all, poor Cody Ransom, who HAS ability, is wilting in the spotlight...unable to buy a hit, even when he strokes it clean and playing tight in the field, the opposite of what he gives when called on as a utility guy. Each day he chokes on it, then reads about Alex (superhuman) is building small villages with his bare hands, running triathlons and hitting off a tee now that his Rehab has been moved up from 10 weeks to 15 minutes (why is this, exactly?). This is his CHANCE to get noticed by someone and get a J-O-B of his own somewhere, I am rooting for him...

But the Yankees have hardly noticed the gaping hole in the bottom of their lineup, due mostly to the thump they are getting from Jorge Posada (another 3 RBI last night, on 2 booming doubles), Nick Swisher (6 extra base hits, 2HR, NINE RBI, On-Base Pctg. MACHINE...a younger, switch-hitting, versatile defending, healthy Giambi...who Cashman got for a guy who struggled in NY and Robinson Cano, who continued to rake last night.

At least against Horacio Ramirez, the veteran retread who has been a punching-bag his whole career. The Royals always seem to have guys like this around, and then they bring in someone from the bullpen who looks like he should be in 10th grade and the kid throws high '90s gas, dominates routinely and you ask yourself 'Why don't they put this guy in the rotation?'. They finally did so with Zack Greinke, when he got things stabilized, and he looks like a long-time winner, don't be surprised to see Robinson Tejeda (how cool to see two baseball players from a foreign country named 'Robinson', the things we do here get noticed there, everywhere...do good? ! do bad? !!!) make a 'spot-start' one of these weeks. He added 6 dominating Strikeouts against a startled Yankee lineup who had dreams of 'Stats Night' facing Ramirez, giving Tejeda 47 K's, 22 BB' in his 42 KC innings.

Got to be a better option than Horacio Ramirez.

Mark Teixiera missed the game for NY with a sore wrist, not what you hope to hear, but with Swisher hot and needing at-bats, it is covered, for the time-being. We'll see, the imaging says no damage, so it is probably the tendinitis all athletes endure at some point. Caution should prevail with Mark (and Alex, push him back a MONTH, Brian!).

Joba today against Meche, should be fun.

See you afterwards.

Posted by Matthew at 12:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Mattew

New York Yankees 4 (2-2)
Kansas City Royals 1 (2-2)

Winning Pitcher: Andy Pettitte (1-0)
Losing Pitcher: Sidney Ponson (0-1)

Everything.

Up to date.

At the newly renovated Kaufman Stadium.

It was always gorgeous and now looks even better, a sparkling palace on the plains.

For New York, this was the sort of crisp, well-pitched victory that put smiles on the faces of all who dream in Pinstripes, as LH Andy Pettitte was in fine form and controlled play from the start - hurling 7 innings of 3 hit ball, 6 K's and only 1 BB. He was charged for the cheapest of runs when the wind took a pop-up out of the reach of a diving Nick Swisher, making his 2nd straight start in RF. Swisher later ripped an RBI 2B to atone, in part, for a transgression that mattered not at all...

At least on this day.

Robinson Cano, continued his torrid hitting, with another two hits, one to LF and one to RF, AND another W-A-L-K, which is only news if you've been following the career of the free-swinging Cano, who took about a month to walk the same 4 times he has in his first 4 games this year. Since being given a wake-up benching for two games last September, Cano is a sizzling 28-56 (.500) and, when he is on a tear like this (as he was during the Yankees 8-0 run after the '08 All-Star game), he's as good a hitter as there is in the game. He also put on another clinic at 2B with a circus grab on a high line drive and several far ranging nabs to his left.

Nice start for him, keep it up, Robby.

Despite getting into a quick hole on Jorge Posada's 2 run 1st inning single, Royal starter (and '08 Yankee) Sir Sidney Ponson, followed up his WBC heroics with a decent start and largely kept his team in the game, striking out the side to keep the score at 4 after a lead-off 2B by Teixeira had Yankee announcer (Met, Blue Jay, Yankee AND Royal legend) David Cone noting he was 'probably' on his last hitter.

Ponson has the stuff to be an effective back-end rotation guy, he needs to throw strikes and avoid the constant tight-rope act, but made a good start on his 2009 endeavors with this respectable effort.

And that's about all I got.

A good game for the Bombers, we'll take about 98 more just like it and then get ready for October!

Posted by Matthew at 02:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

New York Yankees 11 (1-2)
Baltimore Orioles 2 (2-1)

Winning Pitcher: AJ Burnett (1-0)
Losing Pitcher: Alfredo Simon (0-1)

HR: Scott (1)
Teixeira (1)
Swisher (1)
Cano (1)

All that Florida baseball, mostly in the sunlight, was kind to the Yankees.

Baltimore had been relatively kind to the sticks, but stalwarts CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang failed to menace and left the Bombers ohfer Niner.

That silliness is finished.

Behind textbook power baseball, the Yankees rode AJ Burnett's overwhelming arsenal, 3.1 more innings (8.0 straight) of hitless relief pitching from Monday's disappointers (Phil Coke, Brian Bruney) and homeboy studs, Jose Veras and some guy named Mo to a redemptive 11-2 score.

It's pretty wild to see Burnett in the Bronx.

I remember back in 2003, when the Yankees survived 7 games and extra innings against Boston, in the first of their back to back ALCS drama and rolled into a World Series against the Florida Marlins nobody imagined they could lose. Things went well for awhile, and late in Game 4, the Yankees looked like a 3-1 leader on their way to a title. Then the karma that gaveth with Aaron Boone, lefteth with Alex Gonzalez, who took Jeff Weaver over the wall, as Yankee fans threw up their hands about Weaver being left in a second inning, having worked his ass off to prove to Joe Torre how utterly worthless he was (think MLB version of Trent Dilfer, sure he won a title later, but neither guy was around the next season). At 2-2, the Marlin pitching simply took OVER and shut the Yankees down - cold.

A young staff that featured phenom Dontrelle Willis (anxiety ridden in Detroit), stud Brad Penny (rehabbing with Red Sox), precise Carl Pavano (tatooed in his Tribe debut today after 4 lost years with the Yankees) and an instant Superstar named Josh Beckett (Red Sox Ace).

Guru sat in the Aerie, shaking my head at their pitching depth and variety, and the thing I remember the MOST is the way all the announcers and Marlins themselves kept talking about the guy who was NOT there. Somehow, someway, they insisted this missing guy had an arm that outshone the others, even though the others were shining brilliantly on the biggest stage of all.

That kid ended up getting big dollars to come to the AL East, but still, it seemed like he was always hurt (and it's interesting to note that ALL of those guys have suffered injury after injury and missed critical amounts of time) and I never took him that seriously. Then, last year, all the sudden, it seemed, he shows up looking like the guy they were talking about back in '03 - blowing 98 MPH pellets on the knees and in the eyes, and a darting curve that can't be overstated. The guy's stuff is FILTHY.

Still...despite the way he dominated, he never had the mind of a Beckett or the grit of Penny.

But, apparently, he went to school with Roy Halladay, got a clue about pacing himself instead of forcing it (the difference between Beckett in '06 and '07) and - here he is.

He was terrific today, clutch when he needed it, and he picked up his rotation and his club.

Nice job.

Speaking of which...take a bow, Joe Girardi. He talked of the 'value of competition' all Winter long and openly pushed the on-field position battles in Center and Right Field.

Guru was skeptical.

Then I watched Brett Gardner come into camp a greatly improved Offensive player, and, out of nowhere, won the job with a brilliant .446 On-Base .621 Slugging .379 Average. Gardner's speed is a given that makes him a game changer, if he hits at ALL - he's valuable, hitting like that, when pressed to perform, was impressive. And it wasn't just him, Melky Cabrera, asked to compete for what had been HIS for three seasons, responded with his OWN brilliant Spring .408/.508/.349 and 13 RBI, a third of what he managed in 400+ at-bats last season. In seven weeks, two question marks with one outstanding characteristic (Melky's arm - how good? Nick Markakis has 38 OF assists in the past three years over 463 Games, Melky has 35 in just 408!) became players the team feels great about, Gardner is 25, Melky is 24 - Joe pushed the right buttons and it shows.

Gardner had 2 hits today, and stole a base.

Over in RF, Nick Swisher, displaced by the Mark Teixeira at 1B, and blocked by Johnny Damon in LF and Hideki Matsui at DH, was asked to compete with Xavier Nady for the RF job. Instead of pitching a fit and pointing out that, 'Hello! I was a STAR just two years ago, and I'm a 28 year old Power Hitting, Switch Hitter who can play 3 positions well and one adequately...', he complimented his teammates, loved on the whole Yankee vibe and kept the energy level up. Joe sat Matsui today, moved Nady to DH (he had a ringing 2B) and gave Nick the start in RF.

Swisher responded to the challenge to prove himself with a 2-Run Bomb into the RF seats, an RBI single down the LF line and an RBI 2B down the RF line. 3-5, 5 RBI's, every inch of field, plus over the wall.

That's how you insure more playing time.

Turn it up Nick.

The team has interesting problems with its OF. They have six names - two kids, two vets in their final contract years who are consistent and productive (Damon, Matsui), and two guys in their prime with thump and leather. The veterans make serious coin and aren't going anywhere, the kids have too much upside and are too affordable to ship, but the prime guys are a duplication, and Austin Jackson looms for '2010 as Damon/Matsui leave. Swisher would make a HUGE impact in San Francisco, Nady, who has a .300/30/100 bat works anywhere, and that's why he's moved around so much.

Tough not to be seduced by Swisher's skills...we'll see how they play it. Guru sees both Gardner AND Swisher as NL style players with tremendous upside for the right situation, but 'against type' in the Bronx. That can be a good thing...

Yankees hit the ball all three games, with HR's from Posada, Matsui, Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher and Robinson Cano, who came into camp looking like a lion, came back from the WBC focused and smoking the ball and has opened up the '09 season with 6 hits, 3 WALKS and Softball numbers all around, not to mention the typically and casually brilliant range/arm combination at 2B. Like Burnett, Cano is never going to be mentally aware like a Jeter, Alex or Teixeira, but, also like AJ, his physical gifts are ridiculous, he was 3-4, with a HR, 2 RBI and 4 Runs this afternoon.

As for the Orioles, a successful series, and the satisfaction of seeing their plans start to take shape. Adam Jones looks like a blossoming star, Markakis and Roberts already are, Huff and Mora are reliable veteran contributors, Izturis gives them reliable glove work and smarts at SS, Luke Scott is Nick Swisher by the Bay (but not Swisher's bay, where he belongs...). Matt Weiters is on the way to solidify the Catching for long and long...they have two genuine MLB arms up top with Guthrie and Uehara, and now they wait on their farm system to churn the young, high-draft-pick arms into those top slots and fill up the Pen.

They are closer than they've been for a decade.

And Guru? Done. See you after Game 4.

Posted by Matthew at 01:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Baltimore Orioles 7 (2-0)
New York Yankees 5 (0-2)

Winning Pitcher: Koji Uehara (1-0)
Losing Pitcher: Chien-MIng Wang (0-1)

HR: Nick Markakis (1)
Derek Jeter (1)

Guru wrote a column over the Winter, 'The Changing Face of Baseball'.

You see it everywhere you look, on this 35th Anniversary of one of the greatest moments in Baseball History, when Hank Aaron went over the wall for #715 - sending a 10 year old Guru into leaping ecstasy and bringing the racial integration of Baseball full circle.

Tonight at Camden Yards, the Yankees and the Orioles, naturally, had a combined fifty players...

...from N-I-N-E countries (USA, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Japan, Venezuela, Panama, Cuba, Taiwan and Mexico).

20 Million Japanese watched this game at 8AM, watching their biggest Star, Hideki Matsui, from their biggest franchise, the Yomiuri Giants face off against his former teammate, 34 year old, Koji Uehara, making HIS MLB debut (Uehara was the winning pitcher, Matsui was 0-5).

8 Million Taiwanese watched this game at 8AM as well, watching THEIR biggest Star, Chien-Ming Wang, make his comeback from surgery that broke millions of hearts in Taiwan AND The Bronx (Wang was rusty and took the loss).

Globalization works.

On the field, the Yankees were thrilled to see their erstwhile Ace on the Hill, despite the dreadful results (3.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 HR). Wang came into the game with a career mark of 54-20, 25-9 on the road and the Yankees had won 30 of his last 38 starts - they'll live with an occasional clunker, just as long as he takes the ball every five days. If he loses his next start, he 'drops' to .750 for his last 40 - guessing they'll let him take the hill for #41.

For the Orioles, Adam Jones continued his torrid start, showcasing the sorts of skills that may make him a perennial 40/40/Gold Glove threat and Nick Markakis became the 3rd of the top 3 Oriole hitters in the lineup to have a 3-3 start, highlighted by a HR to finish off an empty Wang.

On the Hill, Koji Uehara, a two-time Japanese Pitcher of the Year, whose skills have eroded from those accomplishments, but who hasn't FORGOTTEN a thing about how to get hitters out - especially those who've never seen you before (think 'El Duque' Hernandez). Uehara was efficient and once the lead got huge, was able to relax and reel it in, like the veteran stud he is. The reality of the Orioles is they have MORE than enough lineup, any time a pitcher gets them into the 6th inning, they have a chance.

For the Yankees, Derek Jeter hit a long HR in the 9th, and has taken to the leadoff role with a .600 On-Base pctg and 5 hits in his first two games. Posada looks strong and is throwing the ball with authority. Robinson Cano looks locked in at bat and made several sparkling plays at 2B, but he also failed to run hard on a ground ball to Melvin Mora at 3B that he anticipated would be the third out, only to have Mora overthrow it and Cano not score.

In a blowout, those things get lost - unless you pay attention, Guru does - so does Joe Girardi.

Not running out an automatic ground-ball out is no great sin, but running when you have a chance to SCORE is something that needs to be ingrained and, if it isn't, needs to be coached. In a game that ended with Mark Teixeira on 2nd and Hideki Matsui at-bat, that run would have changed the at-bat for Matsui - when a single would have tied it, instead of him needing a HR.

Game 2, for sure, but a lesson that Joe will surely communicate.

Yankee bullpen was terrific, with Jonathan Albaledejo, Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras combined for 4.1 IP scoreless, a silver lining on a tough night for the pinstripes.

Tomorrow, Yankees send AJ Burnett to the hill, looking to avoid the O-Sweep, game starts at 1:05PM and we'll see you back here afterwards, with the recap.

Posted by Matthew at 03:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Baltimore Orioles 10 (1-0)
New York Yankees 5 (0-1)

WP: Jeremy Guthrie (1-0)
LP: CC Sabathia (0-1)

HR: Posada (1)
Matsui (1)
Izturis (1)

Thud!

That's the sound of a team that swaggered into Baltimore's Camden Yards, off a 24-10-1 Spring Training, having won the final 10 games, enjoyed a two-game power display in a preview for their 1.5B new Palace, hit .295 in Spring, with a 3.35 ERA...

Thud!

That's the sound of 6'7", 310lb, Lefty, newly signed to lead the rotation of the New York Yankees in a rich, long-term contract, casually dominant just five days ago, 5-0, sub 3.00 era lifetime against the Orioles...

Thud!

That's the sound of a 33 year old, career minor-leaguer, a terrific athlete, defender and seemingly unflappable type asked only to replace the Sports Biggest Star on the Sports Biggest Franchise...

Thud!

That's the sound of Switch-Hitting Superstar, born and raised in Maryland and lustily booed by the local crowd...

That was the sound emanating from Camden Yards, where the feisty locals, seemingly relegated to the role of Washington Generals, took advantage of some 'Welcome-to-the-Yankees' jitters from the above referenced players and stormed to a big lead, endured a Yankee comeback and then, improbably...got the big outs with tying run on 3rd Base and only 1 out, then pushed across a clinching 4-spot with the unlikeliest of candidates playing a leading role.

It was that kind of day.

Bummer.

CC Sabathia was flat-out TERRIBLE, worse really than you might imagine he COULD be. He was in trouble from the start, gave up 6 hits in 6 at-bats to Oriole leadoff man, Brian Roberts and his talented follow-up, Adam Jones...walked FIVE and struck out ZERO, with two first inning wild pitches to boot.

His ball had nothing on it and he couldn't throw a strike.

He held a heating pad against his stomach/chest from the 3rd Inning on and Joe Girardi needlessly stayed with him despite the evidence that he had nothing and might be hurting...

It was that kind of day.

A reminder about what one can find on Paper and its value when they hit the field.

Nada! At least on this day.

Cody Ransom misplayed one ground ball from an out into a deflection that scored a run, then muffed a double-play grounder when CC was on the ropes, leading to two more runs. He managed to avoid being charged for any 'errors' (hometown scoring providing O-RBI). He was lost at the plate as well, with an 0-3 against the modest Oriole staff.

Mark Teixiera was worse, booed at every turn by the oddly partisan Oriole crowd (Yankee fans usually make up at least 1/3 of Baltimore crowds, but the O's bundled the opening day tickets with other, non-Yankee games, insuring they'd be purchased by the hardest core Oriole fans and block out those annoying, condescending Yankee fans).

People like Guru.

Even with CC's non-performance and all the disappointment provided by Ransom and Tex in their debuts in Pinstripes, the Yankees came back from 6-1, with a 420 foot BOMB by Jorge Posada (who threw the ball well and looked remarkably like the All-Star stud who used to be Jorge Posada), a nice way to come back from surgery and another one, a 2 run shot from fellow surgical recovery patient, Hideki Matsui, who, ALSO, looks like...himself. Those reassurances from the old guard would have to be the solace for the flopping newbies.

At 6-5, the numbers were all in the Yankees favor once again as Pinch Hitter Nick Swisher smashed a pinch-hit 2B to LF (hitting LH) and was sacrificed over by Brett Gardner (a nice debut, with a line drive single, two good bunts and an accurate throw to double off Melvin Mora at home). Pinch Runner (and MLB debuting new kid in town), Ramiro Pena. 1 out, tying run on 3rd, due up...Jeter...Damon...Teixeira.

To face - Jim Johnson, seemingly the ideal patsy to allow the appropriate script to play out.

But Johnson induced Jeter (who had 3 hits) to ground into a drawn-in SS for out #2, then walked Damon after a tough at-bat, bringing Teixeira in, 1st and 3rd, 2 out...

Tex weakly ground to 2nd, score remained 6-5, Orioles.

A closer look at Johnson shows a reliever who pitched to a 2.23 ERA in 2008, surrendering only 54 hits in 68.2 Innings - who knew the Orioles were actually attempting to W-I-N?

Didn't we have issues with this LAST year? And what gives with the crowd getting on Teixiera, when they've heard he grew up a Don Mattingly fan - why would someone think THEIR dreams would be HIS?

Small-town stuff, for sure, but Baltimore is certainly no small-town.

The bottom of the inning saw another surprise, LH Phil Coke, who was cruising along, began the bottom of the 8th with a wicked K of Luke Scott and got set to face possibly the two weakest-hitting regulars in the AL East - Geoff Zaun, entering his 16th MLB season with a .386 slugging percentage and facing a 95 MPH LH reliever who'd surrendered ONE run in MLB SMOKED a massive 2B to CF and Guru thought...

Huh?

Then, Cesar Izturis, entering HIS 10th MLB season with an even more pathetic .332 slugging percentage and coming off a 414 at-bat season with O-N-E HR and facing Coke, who had never surrendered a MLB HR...hit a long arching fly-ball that Johnny Damon tracked to the wall and LEAPED...

And then, from the dreary confines of Camden Yards, the Orioles, perhaps the least 'sexy' franchise in the American League...a team of plodders and grinders and kids whose gifts will be wasted, a team that has been on an endless downward spiral since Game 1 of their 1996 Playoff series against the unheralded Yankees and their rookie SS, who hit an arching fly ball that wasn't QUITE going to make it over the wall that would be helped by the Sainted Jeffrey Maier, providing the little push that led to Derek Jeter, folk hero with 4 rings...got a little revenge!

As Damon leaped...his glove tracked true and it looked like a catch, but NO!!! A woman in the stands grabbed for the ball, moving his glove aside and then other hands pushed the ball itself those final 10 or so inches it needed to make it into the stands.

Izturis had his '09 HR already! Coke had doubled his runs against from '08 in an instant and surrendered his 1st HR (as long as that's the ONLY one you ever surrender, kid!) and the Yankees were effectively DONE.

Set-up man, Brian Bruney, came in and pitched like a high school kid all hopped up on nerves, throwing pitches to the backstop and walking 2 of the 3 hitters he faced before a disgusted Girardi came out and, mercifully took him out.

And that's that, Yankees smoked on opening day, script rewritten by the angry locals, who've apparently grown tired of losing (11 straight years) tired of the Yankee fans overrunning their park, tired of being considered after-thoughts in the division, tired of Millions of New Yorkers assuming they would happily consent to being stooges for our glory.

Why any of that would tire someone out is something a New Yorker like Guru could never understand, but on this opening day, that's the way it played out...the Mouse jumped up and bit the Elephant and the Orioles are now undefeated!

Posted by Matthew at 01:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Friday, we looked at the 16 National League Teams, today, its time to rank the 14 AL Clubs, using the same method of separating the 'Contenders' and 'Pretenders' and listing them in descending order from 14-1.

The American League divisions are in three very different conditions, with the Western Division dominated in recent years by an Angels team that features brilliant Manager Mike Scioscia, a deep pitching staff, a power-laden Free Agent Outfield and a young, potentially dynamic homegrown Infield. The Angels have had a series of injury questions with a broad swath of their starting rotation (Kelvim Escobar, Ervin Santana, John Lackey) but they've managed to plug holes with minor league depth and cruised through Spring Training at a cool 25-8, Spring certainly is no barometer, but poor teams can't play .750 Baseball for a month under ANY circumstances. The injuries might make it interesting for half a season, but Guru likes the Angels to pull away comfortably and be the only Western representative in the playoffs.

Conversely, the AL Central is a 'cluster-fuck' scenario, where the Detroit Tigers have gone from pre-season favorites in 2008 to last place finish and now appear to be transitioning their roster, on the fly, to try and get younger and more flexible (Gary Sheffield was cut and added to our NL #1, the Mets, after I filed the NL Preview - the VERY reason that I publish the previews at the LAST possible moment!). The Tigers are a mystery...the Twins were a young team that Guru liked to surprise last season and they DID so, narrowly missing the postseason, but they are dealing with a scary injury to their key player (Joe Mauer) that not only threatens the Twins '09 fortunes, it might threaten his brilliant young career (lets ALL hope not, he is special). The White Sox have reshaped their roster and can follow up their '08 Divisional Title in any of the 5 slots. The Indians have picked up a couple of nice pieces (Kerry Wood, Mark De Rosa, Carl Pavano) and have the dynamic Grady Sizemore and slugger, Victor Martinez around some interesting role players. The question for Cleveland will be Cliff Lee and his ability to emulate his '08 Cy Young form and NOT his '07 lost year. The Royals have pieces but no puzzle, they are the only club listed who cannot win this division.

Then you have the AL East, the marquee division in MLB, with the rival Yankees and Red Sox, joined by the '08 AL Champion Rays and rebuilding programs filled with exciting kids in Toronto and Baltimore. Guru will be covering all 162 Yankee games in-depth and will break down the Eastern contenders more completely on Weds., sandwiched between Game 1 and Game 2 of the Yankee season.

The Divisional breakdown is a bit of a crapshoot, too many variables, too much competition, too many stylistic differences that will each gain their own share of believers. The list breaks down those who CAN win and those who CAN NOT, at least in Guru's view and the Divisional Dart Board can be found at the bottom of the summaries.

2009 American League

Pretenders

#14.) Seattle Mariners
#13.) Kansas City Royals
#12.) Baltimore Orioles
#11.) Toronto Blue Jays
#10.) Detroit Tigers
#9.) Oakland A's

Contenders

#8.) Texas Rangers
#7.) Minnesota Twins
#6.) Cleveland Indians
#5.) Boston Red Sox
#4.) Tampa Bay Rays
#3.) Chicago White Sox
#2.) Los Angeles Angels
#1.) New York Yankees

Summaries

#14.) Seattle Mariners

It's a credit to the state of the American League that even those teams listed here as being 'Pretenders' feature LOTS of talented ballplayers. Seattle certainly qualifies, 3B Adrian Beltre is an excellent glove man and has serious power, 2B Jose Lopez is as productive as ANY AL 2B although you'd never know it (he needs a better publicist!) and C Kenji Johjima can be forgiven a horrible '08, he's proven MLB from his previous two seasons and was brilliant in the WBC and Spring Training. When healthy, LH Erik Bedard and RH Felix Hernandez are as talented a 1,2 as any.

Then things get muddled. Superstar CF Ichiro Suzuki has a bleeding ulcer, which Guru has dealt with and there is simply no way he will be back at anything like Ichiro-like shape anytime soon, a devastating blow for a club trying to scratch its way back up the ladder. Brandon Morrow, is a power arm who can be an effective weapon in the late innings, but it remains to be seen how many leads he will have a chance to close out.

#13.) Kansas City Royals

To the heartland we go, where smart young Manager Trey Hillman will try and mold his young crew to a Central Division surprise, and with all the turmoil elsewhere, it isn't an impossible scenario.

But it sure as hell is a tough one to make a case for.

The problem isn't that the Royals haven't built a nice team, this Royal squad is light-years ahead of recent versions. But there still doesn't appear to be enough talent to move them up. SS Mike Aviles (from the Bronx!) had a brilliant debut season and supplanted terrific defender, Tony Pena, Jr. (his dad works in the Bronx!). He will be needed. 3B Alex Gordon is a stud, but still probably would be a minor leaguer in another franchise, ONE of these years, he will blossom to be a top 3B, but 2009? DH Billy Butler is a decent young hitter, but has no usable glove or noticeable power. 2B? Mark Teahen, is one of the Royals who HAS grown into his MLB bat and should be ready to rake is the experiment that has moved his glove from 3B to 1B to RF finally ends at 2B, he will certainly be, at A-Rod size, the 2B opposing runners will least wish to run into at the bag. The rest of the team is OK, LF David De Jesus (another NYC kid) is a solid two-way player, CF Coco Crisp is as well, and should thrive away from Boston, which he was poorly suited for from the outset and RF Jose Guillen has a gun in the OF and a solid run-producers bat. C Miguel Olivo and backup John Buck are both backups, to be honest. Free Agent 1B, Mike Jacobs, is a power hitter they desperately needed and will help Guillen see more strikes.

The staff is OK as well, RH Gil Meche was a good Ace last season, RH Zack Greinke has a BIG arm and got starting experience, Davies, Ponson and Ramirez are just warm bodies. Closer Joakim Soria is the best player on this team, a mini-Mo who can be any kind and will be heavily sought by contenders, which may end up being a ticket for more talent for the Royals.

#12.) Baltimore Orioles

Let's put it out there, Guru dislikes this team, its owner Peter Angelos, who is the Anti-Steinbrenner, asking his team to make do on a minor-leaguers facility in Spring Training and its Manager, who had the guts to say as much, without the intellect to understand that HE is part of the 'cheapo' approach.

It's called 'Irony', Dave.

Angelos spent freely for a decade or so and had nothing to show for it, so he is now trying to catch lightning in the bottle. Oriole fans would be better off DRINKING the bottle than waiting.

Now, all that gloom and doom should not diminish the fact that the Orioles have some SERIOUS talent. 2B Brian Roberts was on his way to being one of the best middle-infielders in the game when he suffered a brutal injury, but has come back (sans some power) to be amongst the annual AL leaders in both extra base hits AND stolen bases, he was WISELY extended by the O's. RF Nick Markakis is an All-Star caliber player, he has a gun for an arm and a productive powerful bat, these two are the core on the Eastern Shore. CF Adam Jones seems poised to join them this season, he is a 5-tool STUD with brilliant Defensive skills, a big arm, speed and power...he only needs more consistent contact to be a star. LF'ers Luke Scott (Power) and Ryan Freel (speed) make a versatile duo and are joined by highly touted (but yet to produce) Felix Pie, who will be given every chance to join Jones and Markakis in what could become one of the best OF's in the game. The corners feature two slugging veterans coming off big seasons, in 3B Melvin Mora and 1b Aubrey Huff.

Lots of good there, so what gives with the negative? The Orioles #1 Starter is a #3, and he is the ONLY starter who could make any of the other staffs in the division.

Ouch.

The pen is ordinary, the Catchers are career backups, holding place for Phenom, Matt Weiters. When Weiters is up, the O's will thump and be the opposite to the pitching rich/weak hitting SF Giants, but in the AL East, that will not be NEARLY enough.

#11.) Toronto Blue Jays

Bad Karma?

No team in MLB has consistently been derailed by poor health than the Blue Jays. Stud CF, Vernon Wells was signed for 7 years, broke down and has been a shell of himself. Stud Closer, BJ Ryan was signed, blew out his arm, Stud starter AJ Burnett was signed, got hurt, healed, turned into what they thought they had and said 'C-Ya' for the Yankees, stud starters Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum looked good enough to make up for his loss, but both are now recovering from surgery and gone for 2009. They signed Scott Rolen to make up for frequently (and again) hurt Troy Glaus and found his body broken down...Rolen rocked in Spring, so he may be feeling better. 1B Lyle Overbay, 2B Aaron Hill (all together now - 'returning from injury...') is terrific, as is fellow 2B/OF prospect Joe Inglett and kid LF Travis Snyder and DH Adam Lind. RF Alex Rios LOOKS like a superstar and has the tools, he wasn't that in '08 and the Jays NEED that. If all that talent gels under 2 time World Series winning Jay Manager Cito Gaston, the Jays will rake and their deep bullpen will hold leads.

But...behind Superstar RH Roy Halladay, the rotation is just not up to the divisions standards and they, literally, have nowhere to go but 4th place.

#10.) Oakland As

The A's have made some serious and important strides and their Offensive performance will be GREATLY improved. That is the good news. But the reality is their '08 lineup was Triple-A, they have nice free agent signings with stud LF Matt Holliday, vacationing by the Bay on his way to a big contract somewhere else, like Reggie Jackson with the '76 Orioles ( those of you who remember, Reggie won 3 World Series in Oakland, went to Baltimore for a year, produced, then signed with the Yankees for 2 more championships and 3 more World Series, before taking the retirement years in LA with the Angels). 1B Jason Giambi didn't win in HIS time in NYC, but he produced and handled himself well despite the steroid drama, he's a good guy (Guru favorite) and has serious thump. SS Orlando Cabrera is another serious PRO who will solidify the Oakland Infield and lineup and if 3B Eric Chavez is remotely healthy (H-U-G-E 'if') then the likes of DH Jack Cust will benefit from the rest of the talented lineup and the A's will contend to August.

As for the rotation? Guru has no opinions, they are all too young and have too small a track record for me to make sense of. Sorry, I try to be comprehensive, but I don't cover the minors for all the teams and I don't measure single season performances as definitive. Suffice it to say, these are some talented kids who lack experience and would have to FREAK to make September meaningful on the East Bay.

#9.) Detroit Tigers

Last year's darlings have proven the difference between 'Fantasy' and reality is R-E-A-L.

In fantasy, brilliant youngsters like LH Dontrelle Willis win 20 games, and don't end up on the DL with 'Anxiety Disorders' (taking 100,000 suffering MO-types with him), brilliant power pitchers like Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman don't turn into batting practice dummies overnight and former SS like Carlos Guillen don't lose their defensive skills so completely that the team needs to make an emergency cut and eat 14M of Gary Sheffield to accomodate the reality AND HOF hitter in his mid 20's like STUD Miguel Cabrera doesn't eat himself from being a MLB 3B to being a DH in waiting.

All that said, Verlander has one of the best arms in the game, Carbrera, Guillen, CF Curtis Granderson and RF Magglio Ordonez are four superior offensive talents. 2B Placido Polanco, 3B Brandon Inge and LF Marcus Thames can all thump as well. C Gerald Laird just waits to die or be replaced and SS Adam Everett is under strict orders to take 3 strikes before taking his Gold Glove back out to the field.

The rotation behind Verlander CAN work, it just hasn't yet. RH Edwin Jackson has a BIG arm and figured things out in '08, he is a nice pickup, Armando Gallaraga is a legit arm, the others? The symbol says it well. The pen? The symbol works there as well.

Contenders

#8.) Texas Rangers

Boom! That's the sound of CF Josh Hamilton, RF Nelson Cruz, 2B Ian Kinsler, 1B Chris Davis, 3B Michael Young...the Rangers are what they always seem to be, an Offensive juggernaut. And we've yet to mention DH Hank Blaylock or young thumping C Jarrod Saltamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. Throw in all-time Glove man, SS Omar Vizquel and hot rookie, SS Elvis Andrus, backup OF Marlon Byrd and lost-boy OF Andruw Jones, who used to be on his way to the Hall of Fame with his all world, 10-time Gold Glove and 50 HR power before he...P-O-O-F...disappeared. The Rangers are an elite AL team in terms of its position players.

But Guru, how can you rank them 8th?

Pitching.

Same as ever was. (Obligatory 'Talking Heads' reference...).

#4 Brandon McCarthy has a live arm and might turn into something. The rest of them?

Suck.

Lots of runs, but not enough to make the playoffs with this staff.

#7.) Minnesota Twins

Guru was an early prophet on the Twins talent in '08.

And they still have a young, improving LF Delmon Young, CF Carlos Gomez, 2B Alexei Casilla, OF Denard Span and young veteran studs RF Michael Cuddyer (who won the RF job from Span) and 1B Justin Morneau (one MVP). But their BEST player, C Joe Mauer (should have TWO MVP's as a catcher whose won two batting titles...) has that serious injury and leaves a GAPING hole on this team.

Free Agent signee, 3B Joe Crede is a two-way stud if HE can stay healthy, the rest are just 'guys' (IF Brendan Harris, SS Nick Punto and C Mike Redmond).

The closer is top tier (Joe Nathan) and the rotation is young and versatile, enough to make it ZERO surprise if the Twins win the Central...but Mauer out makes me believe they will slip a notch.

Twins fans take heart, I am certainly the LAST guy to buy-in to the Minnesota vibe, Guru don't do baggies (that don't have green buds inside) or the whole all-for-one small market vibe, so my bias may have downgraded a good team. If you find Guru in the Upper Midwest, he's running from the SEC!

#6.) Cleveland Indians

I think about the East/Central as being about brother acts. The Twins and Rays are similar, the Red Sox and Indians are also and the White Sox and Yankees have a mutual admiration society and big city vibe.

The Indians are tough for a guy like Guru to root for, with Manager Eric Wedge, pro wrestling fanatic, DH Travis Hafner and small market minds like 1B Ryan Garko...

But there is no mistaking, this is a good baseball team, and the Buckeye Babe loves them, so I have a soft spot for them!

All-World CF, Grady Sizemore has shown far more power than thought possible and is a lineup anchor, SS Johnny Peralta is a slugger with no range, RF Sin-Soo Choo is terrific, LF Ben Francisco looks good, 3B Mark De Rosa is a top-tier all around player and C/DH Victor Martinez is as good a slugger as the AL has to go with rehabbing DH Travis Hafner, Garko and C Kelly Shoppach.

The Tribe can mash.

And...they can pitch, Cy Young miracle man, LF Cliff Lee is unlikely to be NINETEEN games above .500 but obviously, should be a solid starter and so should RH Fausto Carmona (a 19 game winner in '07) and finally healthy, RH Carl Pavano. After that, it gets sketchy but the bullpen is nice with set-up studs Perez and Betancourt around to hold leads and Closer Kerry Wood around to close them.

The Tribe could easily win the division and compete for the Wildcard.

#5.) Boston Red Sox

Peter Gammons likes the Sox to win the East.

Stop the presses!

The Sox have gone for a GM's delight, with a bunch of lower risk/high reward signings that COULD pay off (OF Rocco Baldelli, RH John Smoltz, RH Brad Penny) joining rehabbing homeboys DH David Ortiz, RH Josh Beckett. If ALL of them are healthy enough to play at their established high levels, the Red Sox are a playoff team.

But...Beckett has a mid 4 ERA in his Boston career and is a tough call to make 30+ starts, Penny is a stud, but missed most of '08, Smoltz is a Hall of Famer as a starter OR a reliever, but he'll be 42 in May and missed all but a slice of '08, Papi has lost his close friend and mentor in Manny and, more importantly, lost the 'fear factor' that Manny brought. His knees and his wrist are both concerns and, if he reestablishes his dominant stroke, he becomes a latter day Bonds, as the rest of the lineup doesn't intimidate. Homegrown stars 1B Kevin Youkilis and 2B Dustin Pedroia are solid MLB types, but their games are complimentary, they are both overrated as PLAYERS. Ditto LF Jason Bay and RF JD Drew, border line All-Stars, for sure. C Jason Varitek is a defensive stud and a switch hitter who can NOT be as bad as '08, look for a bounce back from him. CF Jacoby Ellsbury is slap hitter with speed and little arm, another complimentary type. Ditto SS Jed Lowrie.

On the mound...Beckett when healthy is as good as there is, Matsusaka is a terrific starter, but those pitch counts worry (as they do with Kazmir), LH Jon Lester is a star, RH Knuckle Baller Tim Wakefield continues to baffle AL hitters and is a solid #4, Penny, Smoltz or young Clay Bucholz make an impressive array of back end possiblilities.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon has all-world stuff, but needlessly antagonizes his opponents and the set-up staff is rock solid, with former closer Takashi Saito joining Manny Del Carmen and Hideki Okajima.

The Red Sox will hit it, they will pitch it, they will catch it and they will strut around in their role as the saviors of White-Boy culture. Whether that will overcome the clubs in Florida and NYC is a guess.

In the mix, take you picks.

#4.) Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays looked younger and better than the Red Sox last season and the Sox are even older now.

Advantage Rays.

They lack the same thunder in their rotation, but LH Scott Kazmir is a legit Ace, although he throws too many pitches to go deep enough into starts, RH James Shields is a nice starter as is RH Matt Garza and soon-to-be-in-the-rotation LH David Price, they all are young and healthy. The last spot is unknown as of this writing, the Rays made a trade today and we'll see how they fill it (Andy Sonnanstine?).

Closer in waiting, Grant Balfour is a dominant force in the pen, not an if but WHEN he replaces Troy Percival.

On the field, the Rays have 4 studs (LF Carl Crawford, 3B Evan Longoria, 1B Carlos Pena, CF BJ Upton) and are joined by role players (C Dioner Navarro, 2B Akinori Iwamura, RF Matt Joyce (acquired from Detroit for Edwin Jackson in a head scratcher, but has thump) and RF Gabe Gross. They get no Offense from Defensive SS Jason Bartlett, but outside of Derek Jeter, none of the other AL East clubs do either.

The Rays showed in the playoffs what they can be when Upton and Longoria join Pena in Power, they are young and it will come again in '09. They struggled with the Yankees head to head (8-11) and must find a way to beat a bolstered NY and an always tough Red Sox for a playoff spot. Two of the three make it, choose amongst them.

#3.) Chicago White Sox

Mgr. Ozzie Guillen and GM Ken Williams are Guru's sort of guy, so my bias shows through here...I am ROOTING for the White Sox to repeat in a jumbled Central.

That said, I am not sure they have enough.

They have thump. LF Carlos Quentin supposedly put up MVP numbers, although Alex Rodriguez had identical ones while playing 3B and having only 3 more errors than Quentin had playing 100 feet deeper, but that doesn't make Quentin bad, only points out the distortion. He is young and a stud, he will mash, as will RF Jermaine Dye, 1B Paul Konerko, SS Alexei Ramirez, DH Jim Thome.

The Chisox have experiments at 3B (Josh Fields, Dayan Viciedo, Wilson Betemit), 2B (Getz, Lillibridge) and CF (Wise, Anderson). C AJ Pierzinski is solid both ways.

On the hill, the White Sox have a solid top 4, with Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Gavin and Jose Contreras and Closer, Bobby Jenks adds to the solid staff. How the rest of the bullpen, the #5 slot and those position battles play out will determine how the Central breaks down. Any of the four could be the one, I've chosen Chicago, but I am biased.

#2.) Los Angeles Angels

No bias here. I despise the Angels. No team has given Guru's Yankees the fits the Angels do.

None.

The Angels have had nightmarish problems with their rotation health, and, if they were in the East, that might be enough to cost them a playoff slot. But they are not, and, in the West, they simply have too much for their rivals.

This is a team with a perfect blend of Free Agent studs (LF Bobby Abreu, RF Vladimir Guerrero, CF Torii Hunter) and homegrown talent 2B Howie Kendrick, 3B Chone Figgins, C Mike Napoli/Mike Mathis and Cuban star, 1B Kendry Morales and SS Erick Aybar looks to be on the verge of stardom.

DH (4th OF) Juan Rivera does everything well and they have more reinforcements at AAA.

On the hill, they will need to deal the rehabbing Kelvim Escobar and injured John Lackey/Ervin Santana, but they have the arms (Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders) and the depth (Moseley, Adenhart, Loux) to hold the fort and allow what should be the best Angel offense ever to slug their way into the West lead until the top-tier staff seals the deal.

No 100 wins this time, but another comfortable Western division, before losing to an Eastern team in the playoffs is the call here.

#1.) New York Yankees

The difference in the Yankees from the Torre years of this decade is the Minor Leagues.

While the Yankees CONTINUE to suffer inexplicable injuries to critical players (nobody more critical than Alex Rodriguez) the dominant programs they have at AAA (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) and AA (Trenton) provide the team with layers of depth they didn't have for Torre.

As close as it figures to be between the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees in the AL East, there are no teams who will stay close with EITHER of the Yankees minor league juggernauts (Triple A Scranton will field a better starting five than many MLB teams...). The MLB Red Sox will stay with their NYC counterparts, but the Pawtucket Paw Sox cannot hope to stay close to Scranton, nor can the AA Portland Sea Dogs, the talent runs DEEP for this Yankee organization. That is why, whatever happens in '09, the Yankees will be stronger in '10.

Stronger than 1st?

Yup.

As it is, the lineup is filled with question marks. CF Brett Gardner is Juan Pierre/Joey Gathright, a freakishly fast ATHLETE who plays baseball. His speed in undeniable and he will steal as many bases as he can as long as his bat allows. His bat is pure slapdash, and, like those others, it says here he will eventually surrender the CF slot to a proven Melky Cabrera, whose Defense, switch hitting, thump and BIG arm make him a more versatile option. Both are keeping the spot warm for phenom, Austin Jackson, who looks like the CF for the next decade with 5 tools, awesome power and arm and the endorsement of Reggie Jackson who paid him the ultimate compliment by comparing his Defensive ability to Devon White, of the Blue Jays and Angels, back in the day.

Surrounding the CF kid are LF Johnny Damon who had 29 Stolen Bases to go with .303 Avg/.375 On-Base Percentage/ .461 Slugging in '08 and will thrive in the #2 hole. Damon can still run down any ball in the OF, but his pathetic arm makes him a defensive liability just as his bat and tireless Yankee-ness make him a plus. His last year in NYC and all systems 'go', he is backed up by Switch-Hitting thumper with a big arm, Nick Swisher, who will back up LF, RF and 1B and play some DH while waiting for the new mix in '10 - they like Nick and he will probably outlast the rest of the corner types and compete with Melky and Gardner for AB's when Jackson moves into CF for good. RF Xavier Nady is coming off .300 with 25/97, plays a nice OF and throws well, he is solid. DH Hideki Matsui has had both knees done and is through as an every day OF, but is still a 100 RBI guy with a versatile bat (was leading AL in hitting at .323 when injured last June) he showed typical power in Spring.

The Infield is an assemblage of stars, with perennial SS Derek Jeter moving his .300 bat and top-five RISP into the leadoff slot. Jeter should be up 10-20 points in '09 and also bring his stolen bases back into 25-35 territory, leading off. 2B Robinson Cano has led the AL handily in total chances the past two seasons and has the range and arm you dream of, while possessing one of the games purer strokes, his 'down year' in '08 consisted of .151 in April and .297 from May to September, he's .300 plus with 20 HR/100 RBI in '09. Alex is Alex, but he is hurt and will be replaced by 3B Cody Ransom for the first few weeks of the season, Ransom is fast and has power and can play the position, but he is not Alex - nobody is. 1B Mark Teixeira is a switch-hitting power guy who hits .300 and carries a gold-glove.

Ramiro Pena, a sleek fielding, emerging hitter from AAA will man the Utility role until Alex returns (when Ransom will be in that slot). Pena beat out Angel Berroa, who mashed all Spring but looked slow in the field. Catcher Jose Molina led MLB in throwing out baserunners in '0, but is a poor hitter and the Yankees suffered without C Jorge Posada, Posada was mashing in Spring and threw out 50% Stealers, if he is healthy - the Yankees are set offensively, with or without Alex. If Jorge is hurt and Alex takes a long time to return, the last three in the lineup (Molina, Ransom, Gardner) will not scare anyone, placing more pressure on the first six and the pitching.

On the hill, the Yankees have no holes, and go three levels deep. Unlike '08, no injury to an arm can derail them. Rotation of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain is the best in the 39 years Guru has watched the team. The bullpen of LH Damaso Marte, LH Phil Coke, RH Jonathan Albaladejo, RH Jose Veras, RH Edwin Ramirez, RH Brian Bruney and RH Mariano Rivera is the best I've seen them have and, like the starters, is backed up by volume of talent in the minors.

The Yankees will pitch and they will catch. Their offense gave up a lot in Giambi/Abreu (combined 52HR/196 RBI with high OBP%) and losing Alex for any length of time is not helpful, the team will go as far as its Offense can take them - if they hit, they will win it all.

Posted by Matthew at 11:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Matthew

Baseball has changed.

The dynamism of Free Agency and an unprecedented pool of international talent has resulted in variables that didn't exist 15 years ago. The talent is so deep, impact players can develop from unforseen quarters and we've seen it in season after season. Accordingly, the traditional 'Preview' column is likely to be an exercise in the absurd, or at least - an early irrelevance.

SO, its a challenge to place the teams in perspective, given that many of the 'key' components are likely to develop over the course of the season and can't be identified with any certainty here on this final day of March...a problem that I have chosen to address by minimizing the placements of the divisions (which you can find at the bottom of the column) and instead focus on the larger, NL-specific landscape, seeking to sort out those teams who are CONTENDERS and those who are, unlikely to contend - PRETENDERS.

Pretenders are likely to be the places new talent will develop first, but lack the existing structure to impact on the playoff chase in 2009. Contenders are based on what they have visible, and can additionally shift up or down through the addition of an unknown quantity, either through a trade of call-up from the Minor Leagues. All we can look at now is where they ARE, we'll all have to follow the season closely to determine where they'll FINISH.

And that, is that.

From the bottom to the top, your 2009 National League Preview...

First, the List.

Pretenders

16. Padres
15. Astros
14. Pirates
13. Braves
12. Nationals
11. DiamondBacks
10. Rockies
9. Marlins

Contenders

8. Cardinals
7. Giants
6. Brewers
5. Phillies
4. Reds
3. Cubs
2. Dodgers
1. Mets

And now a team by team capsule with the reasons why...

16.) San Diego Padres

The early candidate for 'Worst Team in Baseball', the Padres feature one of the best young Starting pitchers in MLB (Jake Peavy) and one of the best young sluggers (Adrian Gonzalez).

After that. Not much. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff is young enough and has shown some power (he had a HUGE Spring) and LF Chase Headly, looks to have some game....but that is about all there is to discuss with the Padres. They've made a mysterious signing of David Eckstein to play 2B, a position where they have an able incumbent (Edgar Gonzalez) and a minor league successor-in-waiting (Matt Antonelli) and have let go of talented SS Khalil Greene and left SS in the hands of Luis Rodriguez, who will turn 29 never having played 80 MLB games in a season or slugged higher than .383 - utility man numbers.

They will struggle to score runs and, after Peavy, there just doesn't appear to be NEARLY enough starting pitching to prevent a last place finish in the West and perhaps, the entire league.

The GOOD news? Manager Bud Black is a seriously smart baseball mind, who masterfully managed Angel pitching for years and knows talent. The ownership muddle has cleared with former agent/Diamondbacks executive, Jeff Moorad, taking the helm. All of which means the Padres should be able to build off the weak 2009 season with intelligent drafting and internal development.

That will be then. This is now. The Padres belong in the rear spot.

#15.) Houston Astros

The Astros are much better than San Diego.

But who else are they better than?

Like SD, they feature a Stud Starter (Roy Oswalt) and thumper 1B (Lance Berkman) and they have serious thump to go along with them in SS Miguel Tejada and LF Carlos Lee. They have a solid closer in Jose Valverde, insuring that games they have a chance to win can be converted.

But it's pretty bare after that. AND recent reports of a serious problem with Berkman's bicep injury that is likely to cost him early-season time is a gut shot for this team, that depends upon their star as much as any team in Baseball. The pitching is poor behind Oswalt, the lineup away from the middle-thumpers, is modest and the thumpers are Defensive liabilities.

Guru pegs Houston for the bottom of the Central division scramble.

#14.) Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are better than the Astros.

Catcher Ryan Doumit and CF, Nate McClouth are exciting young players with serious upside. 2B Freddy Sanchez is a former Batting Champion who had horrific health problems in 2008 and is healthy, the LaRoche brothers man the corners, with Adam at 1B and Andy at 3B, both are capable - Adam has established 25 HR power and Andy is young enough to see the talent he flashed in the Dodger minor-leagues develop in a lower-pressure atmosphere with a full season of at-bats. SS Jack Wilson is slick fielder and capable MLB hitter, who forms a dynamic double-play duo with Sanchez. Prospect Andrew McCutcheon looks ready to be the fulltime LF and Jose Tabata may follow him into the RF job by the end of 2009, the cast of veteran OF at the corners is uninspiring with Eric Hinske, Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss and Craig Monroe all failing to get anyone's pulse moving.

The pitching has been uneven, but has potential. LH Paul Maholm, RH Ian Snell and LH Zack Duke have all taken regular turns for enough MLB starts and shown enough ability that they may be ready to move forward as a group in '09, the way the Tiger kids did back in '06. Behind them, Yankee farmhands, Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens have enough ability to hold the #4 and 5 rotation slots, Ohlendorf has a big arm and upside, Karstens is smart, modestly gifted, but knows how to pitch - about what you'd expect from an NL Central #5.

I like the Pirates next wave and some of the things they have in place, 2009 does not figure to be the breakthrough year, but they do seem to be moving in the right direction and could modestly surprise to the upside.

#13.) Atlanta Braves

Guru, are you kidding? The Atlanta Braves ranked below Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins?

Yup.

3B Chipper Jones is a HOF player coming off a Batting Title and C Brian McCann is an elite player. 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Kelly Johnson and RF Jeff Francoeur are decent, if uninspiring MLB players (Francoeur has a big arm and power bat, needs to make more contact). Free Agent LF Garret Anderson is a professional hitter/run producer and OF Matt Diaz and Gregor Blanco can rake a bit....the team is counting on Rookie Jordan Shafer to bring speed and excitement to the top of the order and will start over Blanco in CF.

On the hill, phenom Tommy Hanson should grab a rotation slot by mid-season and will join Jair Jurgens as part of the Braves rotation future. Veteran Derek Lowe is a reliable presence and the perennial disappointment, Javier Vasquez will look good in spots, fail in others and end up pitching .500 baseball. Japanese Free Agent, Kenshin Kawakami, is a veteran who handled Spring well and should be competent. Tom Glavine is Guru's age and throws softer (80 MPH in Spring), but so is Jamie Moyer, who was #3 on a World Series Champion.

So what does Guru know?

The Braves have some players, they have some hope, they just don't seem to be structured to compete for a playoff slot in 2009.

#12.) Washington Nationals

This is an interesting team with a terrific young manager (Manny Acta) who have a nice blend of young veterans (Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, Ronnie Belliard, Nick Johnson, Christian Guzman, Austin Kearns) and hi-ceiling 5-tool types (Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge) and a revamped rotation that features guys who will bring big arms and reliable innings. They are lacking in experience, have no proven results to point to and have a patchwork bullpen...so...

They are, in no way, ready to compete for a playoff spot, but they are on the right track and appear young and talented enough to outdo some of the more experienced clubs below them on this list.

#11.) Arizona Diamondbacks

This is a controversial opinion, I know the D-Backs are considered to be a stockpile of top-tier youngsters and endured great criticism on TSN when I suggested their early start last season was an illusion (which, of course, is what happened...). There are no questions about SS Stephen Drew or OF Justin Upton, who both look to be serious studs for the next 15 years or so. Stephen is already better than his brother (J.D. of the Red Sox) and, while I'd take Justin's Brother (B.J. Upton of the Rays) over just about ANY other young player, Justin can ball as well. C Chris Snyder has shown steady improvement and looks like a long term answer behind the dish. Top starters, RH Brandon Webb and RH Dan Haren, both have Cy Youngs to their name and are still young. Max Scherzer is a big-arm wonder with a ton of upside, Doug Davis and Jon Garland take up space and the Pen is leaky, having traded every decent arm it developed.

However, 1B Conor Jackson seems to have plateaued and seems to be similar to Braves 1B, Casey Kotchman - which is to say, 'not bad', but also not the sort of thumping 1B you need. CF Chris Young has that same 5-Tool promise as the Nationals pair, but has been at-it longer and shown less ability to make contact. He HAS power and speed, and is still young, but will need to hit above .243 to matter in a division with the Dodgers. 3B Mark Reynolds is the poor man's Adam Dunn (if Oakland A, Jack Cust isn't...) with a surrealistic combination of 204 Strikeouts and 34 Errors to go along with his 28/97 production. He's a DH in the NL and with the modest Jackson/Tracy pairing at 1B, perhaps the D-Backs need to be moving Reynolds across the diamond and targeting a legitimate Defensive 3B. With 2B Felipe Lopez replacing Gold Glove caliber, Orlando Hudson and Offensive SS, Drew, the D-Backs, for all their youth, will field perhaps MLB's WORST defensive infield - and with pitch-to-contact Webb and Jon Garland in the Rotation, that looks like a recipe for un-earned runs against on a team that struggles to put up its own runs.

That means losing.

At least, from the Magic Carpet's vantage point, which, admittedly, is 3,500 Miles away...

#10.) Colorado Rockies

The differences between the 2007 NL Playoff combatants, Arizona and Colorado, are minimal and I expect them to finish within 5 games of one another in 3rd and 4th place in the NL West.

The Rockies have more established young talent (3B Garret Atkins, RF Brad Hawpe, SS Troy Tuowitzki, 2B Clint Barmes and C Chris Iannetta) are all solid and still improving...their Bullpen looks pretty well set, with Huston Street and Manny Corpas on the back end and RH Ubaldo Jimenez is an All-Star starter.

But...the rest of the Rotation, LF Seth Smith and CF Ryan Spillborghs are tough to believe in, at least to this point. If they contribute, the Rockies could surprise to the upside, leapfrog the deep Giants pitching and threaten the mighty Dodgers. I'm betting they'll need reinforcements before that can happen.

#9.) Florida Marlins

Yet another NL group of youngsters who could easily take the LEAP forward (Nationals, D-Backs, Rockies), but its tough to forecast such moves...the Marlins have tremendous production from their power hitting Double Play combo of SS Hanley Ramirez and 2B Dan Uggla (no truth to the rumor that Dan's name refers to his Defensive game...), both guys are Nomar in the Infield - which is to say, terrific hitters. Perennials OF Jeremy Hermida and C Cody Ross are solid contributors and CF Cameron Maybin is the finest of the young 5-Tool types that we've looked at, unlike Young in Arizona and Milledge in Washington, Maybin is a sure thing.

The rotation is young and dynamic and 1-5 could outperform, which would have the Marlins right at the throat latch of the Champion Phillies in the NL East.

#8.) St. Louis Cardinals

I originally had the Cardinals below some of these young clubs, but the news that RH Chris Carpenter is throwing BB's in Spring and feeling healthy puts them at the fringe of contention, and Tony LaRussa and 1B Albert Pujols proved in 2006 what they can do if they get a sniff and things fall right. OF thumpers Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan put plenty of thunder around Phat Albert and SS Khalil Greene is an absolute STEAL who can play in St. Louis for a half dozen years.

The Birds will hit.

C Yadier Molina will do the Molina thang and provide brilliant defense and sporadic offense, new 2B Skip Shumaker and 3B fill-in Ryan Freese (for inevitably broken down thumper, Troy Glaus), the rotation behind Adam Wainwright and Carpenter and the entire bullpen are the obstacles for the Redbirds in a competitive NL Central.

#7.) San Francisco Giants

The Giants are probably the most difficult NL team to diagnose. They have a rotation that is a thing of beauty, balancing styles, sides and Cy Youngs from 3 of the 5 (Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito), with Cy like ability in another (Matt Cain) and more promise from Jonathan Sanchez. The pen looks diversified and competent, if lacking in Q rating.

The Giants will pitch.

C Bengie Molina will do the Molina thang and provide brilliant defense and sporadic offense. As will RF Randy Winn and CF Aaron Rowand. The Giants hopes depend upon the development of young, promising players (LF Fred Lewis, 3B Pablo Sandoval and 1B Travis Ishikawa) and a bounceback (expected) from SS Edgar Renteria, who needs to move to the AL and flop every few years before going back to the NL where he thrives. If those guys do their job, the Giants pitching has them a distant 2nd in the NL West, at least that's my take.

#6.) Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are the established young club in the Central division mix with homegrown, power-laden Superstars LF Ryan Braun and 1B Prince Fielder signed multi-year and ready to send horsehide into Orbit under the Miller Park roof. Capable 2-way Veterans like CF Mike Cameron, SS JJ Hardy, 3B Bill Hall and 2B Rickie Weeks leave the Brewers looking strong in the batters box, affording them the ability to survive the powerless C Jason Kendall (this team, more than ANY, needs to trade with Texas or the Yankees for one of their young stud catchers...).

The problem for Milwaukee is on the hill. Highly thought of youngsters RH Yovani Gallardo and LH Manny Parra would look SWEET in the middle of any rotation, but with the departures of top-tier arms, CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, the kids will slot up into the top slots and be supplanted by the mass of mediocrity known as RH Braden Looper, RH Jeff Suppan and RH Dave Bush (the first two proved me wrong with fellow whipping boy, Jeff Weaver on that '06 Cardinal staff...). The pen is dependent upon the health of health-challenged Stud, Trevor Hoffman and the whole pitching question seems headed towards a negative answer in 2009.

That leaves the talented Brewers just outside the playoff picture, in my estimation.

#5.) Philadelphia Phillies

The World Champions feature three terrific studs SS Jimmy Rollins (I'd take Hanley in Florida and Jose in NY before him...), 1B Ryan Howard (give me Prince) and 2B Chase Utley (state of the art, but recovering from A-Rod Surgery) and a nice player in LF Raul Ibanez. 3 of them are LH hitters, however and their principle competition (NY Mets) feature two starters and two relievers who, essentially, shut down LH hitting - it is one of the reasons that departed RH power hitter, Pat Burrell was the designated Met killer in residence. With him gone, the Phils will need something from CF Shane Victorino, RF Jayson Werth, 3B Pedro Feliz and C Carlos Ruiz.

Says here that won't be enough.

The Pitching features Postseason stud, LH Cole Hamels, who is battling some injury issues that should not cost him too many starts, RH Brett Myers whose big arm finally showed up on the field and three journeymen who came up solid last year, but could each flop completely as they have in other destinations (LH Jamie Moyer - older than Guru!, RH Joe Blanton and RH Chan-Ho Park)...if these three don't make it in the rotation, they would be ideal to throw BP for the All-Star Home Run Derby!

The pen featured a timeless season from previously erratic closer, RH Brad Lidge, but he'll have to put another gem together to shut down his long-time critics (like Guru) and even at his best, he falls short in comparison to the Mets new pair.

Says here that won't be enough. No playoffs for the Champs.

#4.) Cincinnati Reds

Dusty Baker's Reds are loaded.

Young stallions (LF Chris Dickerson, RF Jay Bruce, 2B Brandon Phillips, 1B Joey Votto) are in the infancy of their MLB careers and already productive, Dickerson looked like monster-in-the-making this Spring. They are supplemented by a well thought out assemblage of Veterans, with C Ramon Hernandez (benefiting from the move to the NL), 3B Edwin Encarnacion, CF Willy Tavares and Glove Man, SS Alex Gonzalez. The Red starting 8 are solid and formidable with improvement from the kids, which appears certain.

And the news on the mound is even BETTER. Despite his historically poor 2008 season, RH Aaron Harang is a legitimate stud and is followed up by Dominican sensations Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, both of whom have Cy Young 'stuff' and are joined by talented Micah Owings and Homer Bailey in the mix with retread innings-eater, Bronson Arroyo - look for Arroyo to be the odd man out and for the Reds rotation to be intact for at least a couple of seasons until the contract time rolls around. Closer Cordero is solid as well, but the shaky middle of the bullpen may be the factor that places the Cubs in the Division winners position.

#3.) Chicago Cubs

Year 101 begins. Will this be the Cubs year?

Maybe! The legendary Lou Piniella will get a lot from a nice bunch...

The Cubs have serious thump from S-I-X slots (LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Kosuke Fukodome, 1B Derek Lee, 3B Aramis Rodriguez, RF Milton Bradley, C Geovany Soto) and two role players manning the DP combo (SS Ryan Theriot, 2B Mike Fontenot). The bench is efficient and balanced.

Ace RH Carlos Zambrano is a stud as is the fragile but brilliant RH Rich Harden, if both are healthy is will help buffer the expected return to established mediocrity from LH Ted Lilly and RH Ryan Dempster and spot guy RH Sean Marshall. Both the closer, Kevin Gregg and set-up man, Carlos Marmol are filthy and will hold the many leads Cub thump will hand them.

A playoff team, for certain.

#2.) Los Angeles Dodgers

Joe Torre has to be smiling.

Manny is back. The young pitching looks deep and the young veterans seem to be moving to the next level, all in his 2nd season in LA. The more you look at the Dodgers, the more it seems that Torre is going to collect his surrealistic 14th straight playoff appearance and 12th Division title and be on the short list for his 7th Pennant and 5th World Series title.

Take a bow, Joe!

Manny is smiling. Moving from provincial, anglo New England to the live-and-let-live, latino Los Angeles has the expected effect, as did going from a clubhouse where teammates wanted him to conform to THEM to one where teammates look UP to him.

Night and day. Reflected in his demeanor and production.

With Manny and stud kids like OF Matt Kemp, OF Andre Ethier, 1B James Loney, C Russell Martin joined by solid two-way veterans SS Rafael Furcal, 2B Orlando Hudson and 3B Casey Blake....

The Dodgers will hit it and they will catch it as well.

Which leaves the Pitching, and the story is positive there as well. While they lost reliable Veteran Derek Lowe and rehabbing stud, Brad Penny...they have an abundance of young, powerful arms who've proven they can get MLB hitters out and are just scratching the surface. Rotation of Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley, James McDonald and Clayton Kershaw might start a bit shakily but, with legs under them - they should be rolling come playoff time. They are joined by filler veteran, LH Randy Wolf who should provide innings. The Bullpen is an international assemblage with young stud, Jonathan Broxton, as closer and set-up by Hong-chih Kuo, Guillermo Mota, Cory Wade and Jeff Weaver, who came in from the bullpen for Torre to move the Yankees close to a World Series title in 2003, only to surrender an 11th Inning HR and see it all fall away. Apparently, Joe and Donnie Baseball have more forgiveness in their hearts than Guru does, but Weaver is certainly capable in a long relief role with modest expectations.

The Dodgers are good and probably will be better in 2010, a nice problem for the skipper AND the slugger to have.

#1.) New York Mets

The Mets feature three of the most dynamic two-way players in MLB (CF Carlos Beltran, SS Jose Reyes, 3B David Wright) and two of them are still mid '20s kids with 4-5 years of proven production. That is the foundation. Around them, the Mets have aging but productive slugger, 1B Carlos Delgado, Defensive specialist Catcher Brian Schneider splitting time with thumper Ramon Castro, RF Ryan Church, LF David Murphy - a good looking young player with a .300 AVG/.400 OBP game and Comeback Player of the Year, Fernando Tatis, whose thump returned to stay (?) in '08. The weak link is 2B Luis Castillo, who was on those '03 Marlins and looks several steps slower today - he's signed for three years so a poor start might entail a huge GULP for Madoff-weary Mets ownership. If Castillo is NOT done, he can stabilize a modest back end of the lineup and scamper around with the thunder at the top of the order.

The Mets Starting pitching begins with the brilliant LH Johan Santana, whose September heroics were lost amidst the Bullpen collapse. RH John Maine, LH Oliver Perez, RH Mike Pelfrey are all strong armed and young enough to move forward with the strong team and solid pen behind them. Filler, Livan Hernandez, is an innings-eater at #5.

The biggest problem last season, the Bullpen, has been addressed, brilliantly, with RH Francisco Rodriguez, RH JJ Putz and RH Sean Green, all of whom look ready to contribute right away.

The Mets are a team without a weakness, with brilliance in several spots, they could be on their way in 2008. The question, as it always does, will be how they handle the September pressure that has wilted many of them these past two seasons of collapse and how Manager Jerry Manuel matches up with his illustrious competitors (Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Joe Torre) in the 2009 NL Playoffs.

East

Mets
Phillies
Marlins
Nationals
Braves

Central

Cubs
Reds (WC)
Brewers
Cardinals
Pirates
Astros

West

Dodgers
Giants
Rockies
D-Backs
Padres

Guru will post the American League Preview on Sunday.

Posted by Matthew at 05:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)