The Ice Flow

Didn't see this one coming...

Chinese vessels harassed American Military Surveillance ships in International Waters, South of Hainan Island in the South China Sea. The small boats dropped debris in the Navy ships path, steered their boats in direct obstruction, shouted at the American sailors and waved Chinese flags...

Ugly Nationalism is apparently not limited to the US and Russia.

The more things change...

What a shame.

Certainly the Chinese have the right to assert a greater degree of autonomy in these Seas, this is an area analogous to the North Atlantic waters off of Cape Cod - it's C-L-O-S-E to China and Hainan is the major Chinese Naval installation. In the spirit of their broad alliance and need to maintain close ties for the good of the World - these are the types of situations that can and should change. The days of American impunity in that region have obviously ended and that will only benefit everyone, America included.

But.

With regular contact established, a positive beginning to the new administration's relationship with China has seemingly been established. Secretary of State HIllary Clinton made China her first destination and made fostering positive vibes the focus of her visit. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is a China expert who speaks Mandarin, and should be a breath of fresh air for the Chinese after eight years of arrogant lectures from the likes of Economic 'experts' advising less savings and more structured finance and, by the way, we'd like to see more Churches...ugh.

A blind, bullet-ridden desperado with a catastrophic haircut could see that President Obama will make a more responsive, engaged partner than his predecessor...

So why would the Chinese set up a confrontation that could, easily, have led to disaster. Those Navy kids kept their cool and used hoses to deter the screamers, thank goodness. Where would the World be this morning if that had been bullets instead of water?

It was reckless symbolism. The LAST thing anyone needs. The sort of thing the Chinese seem to be preoccupied with...perhaps out of a sense of a emerging from a long-neglected period on the World stage, but that is long gone. No Country, least of all the United States is ever going to attempt to place China in a box and none COULD, even if they wished to. The threat to China is internal, not from the Tibetan dreamers, the Taiwanese entrepreneurs or the 'East Turkistanians' - but from the paranoia of its leadership.

Barack Obama must seize this incident as a chance to provide the Chinese with some good-feeling concessions in the South China Sea and to insist, in return, that the next time something is on the mind of the leadership - get Secretary Clinton on the PHONE or call the President directly. Change needs to occur to more accurately represent the balance of power in the region and the world, but that change need not come through intimidation or symbolism, it should come from conversation and negotiated agreement. No Chinese should seek to intimidate Americans with nationalistic displays...

...and Vice Versa.

For goodness sakes, we've got a global economy on its knees, an intransigent Islam on the docket, a resurgent totalitarianism in Russia and a 21st Century need to share science and shift the paradigm into Space. Childishness is not needed, vision and humility are.

The goal for both should be a relationship of mutual respect and open conversation.

Buzzing Naval vessels in the years after the USS Cole was sabotaged by Al Qaeda off of Yemen and Somalian pirates have been hijacking shipping in the Gulf of Aden is a provocation that should never have occurred.

China and the United States must see that it never does again.

Posted by Matthew at 04:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)

The more I watch the maneuvers emanating from the Obama administration, the more certain I am that America is in excellent hands.

I've watched as he avoided the FDR style confrontation that I was looking forward to and has instead, consistently and without fail, offered a branch to his opponents, be they domestic or foreign.

He went out of his way to stress Bi-Partisan intentions to an undermanned GOP he does not 'need' to govern, and gained both credibility and wiggle room by doing so. When the GOP spurned his advances and went off down the familiar road (Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee...), it was the one with a black eye, and the legislation passed without them anyway (Stimulus Spending).

He went out of his way to build strong chain-of-command dialogue with his Military and Foreign Relations staff, potentially alienating his Anti-War supporters, but did so unswervingly and without rancor, insuring that any lost support will probably be gained elsewhere.

Then, Hillary Clinton, made the rounds in the Far East and quickly brought a better tone to the dealings with China than had existed at any point in the Bush years and has followed that up, amazingly, by establishing frameworks for conversation with the Palestinians on Gaza, the Israeli's on the West Bank, the Syrians on Golan Heights and the Iranians on Afghanistan.

Then the discussion moved to the Russians and the Missile Defense issue.

Now the administration has floated the idea of talks with 'elements of the Taliban'!

The whole pace has been breathtaking and totally altered the dynamic of intransigence, and, as with the courtship of the GOP domestically - they've effectively blunted the other players from languishing behind the idea of an uncooperative USA. In each instance, the conversations chosen focus on areas of potential agreement, rather than some ideological beachhead that is DESIGNED to be unattainable (think Pope Benedict telling 30 million Horny Brazilians under 25 years old that they need to refrain from doing that old wild thang until they get hitched. Um...sure Papa!) or one of Dubya's sermons compelling Texas-style values.

*Iran wants and NEEDS the Taliban to be kept under control in Afghanistan and has consistently been able to be a reliable partner to its Eastern borders in a fashion thus far unachievable in the South and West. By focusing on the achievable, the conversation can at least begin and the contrast between the administration and its predecessor can become known to the Iranians. How they will handle this knowledge is a mystery, but it removes the smoke and speculation and adds a note of direct action.

*Russia is desperate since the collapse of Energy prices, the Russian Market and its international trade and has consistently focused on theatrical assertions of its desire to re-establish its 'sphere of influence' to Soviet levels in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Through it all, the main source of anger and concern has been the Bush plans for Eastern European missile Defense. By placing that program, one that has doubtful technical and strategic importance and ZERO support within the current administration, BACK on the table is a risk-free way to assess the degree of Russia's ability to get things done diplomatically in its current configuration and to offer her the easiest chip on the board.

*Syria, Hamas, Taliban all have been out of the loop diplomatically and have now been forced to formulate a response. Instead of responding to events, the Administration is forcing the agenda to areas of the possible, from which intentions can be ascertained, bluffs can be called and a clear picture can evolve. They have to maintain a certain aloof posture within Islam and pay lip service to that defiance, but they cannot afford to place a hand in the chest of a more accessible America and they realize it.

Ultimately, these early forays are no more likely to alter the dynamic internationally any more than they changed the GOP approach, but by CALLING THEM to the table and offering them opportunity, the world understands that the administration is TRYING to find common ground.

This approach has already led to the passing of the Obama agenda domestically and to the GOP being forced out on a Limb (augh), that only makes it appear even MORE disconnected than it was in November. In the end, it will come down to the success of policy, but by unwinding the perception game in its favor, the administration will be dictating events, rather than reacting.

The GOP hoped to soften its stance in the post Bush years, with Jindal in the lead chair and Michael Steele at the RNC. Now they cluster in frenetic back rooms with the despised-by-all-but-the-same-old-base that is demographically incapable of delivering post Bush elections. Instead of BROADENING their appeal and becoming viable, somehow, they have actually gotten narrower and more boxed-in.

All of that from a subtle hand.

Well played!

Posted by Matthew at 10:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)